宏观金融类：文字早评2025/12/15-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on their returns, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged in the long - term, and the idea is to go long on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, the end - of - year bond market is expected to fluctuate under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances, and attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship and the rebound after over - decline [5][7]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude for silver [8][10]. - For non - ferrous metals, although the short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small; aluminum prices have strong support and may rise further after adjustment; zinc may give back some gains; lead prices are expected to run weakly in a wide range; nickel may turn to a volatile trend; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be adjusted in a range; alumina prices are recommended to be observed; stainless steel is in a tight - balance pattern and lacks a clear direction; casting aluminum alloy prices may maintain range fluctuations [12][13][14][15]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are estimated to oscillate weakly; glass and soda ash are expected to show different trends of narrow - range oscillation and downward pressure respectively; manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by the black sector and cost factors; industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak [33][34][35][36][38][39][40][43][44][45][48]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term operation; oil prices are recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and short - term wait - and - see; methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level; urea is expected to build a bottom through oscillation; for pure benzene and styrene, one can go long on non - integrated profits when the inventory inflection point appears; PVC is recommended for short - selling on rallies; ethylene glycol and PTA need to pay attention to supply - demand changes and valuation; PX is recommended for long - buying on dips; polyethylene and polypropylene have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [51][52][56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][79]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, one can short - sell after the consumption rebound; for eggs, one can short - sell on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the long - term; for soybean and rapeseed meal, it is expected to run in an oscillating manner; for oils and fats, one can observe high - frequency data for short - term operations; for sugar, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term; for cotton, it is difficult to have a unilateral trend [81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][90][91][92]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: There are positive policy signals such as the central bank emphasizing domestic demand and the promotion of personal consumption loans. SpaceX plans an IPO in 2026 with a valuation of about $800 billion [2]. - Basis Ratio: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy View: Although there is short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Friday. In November 2025, the social financing scale and the balance of broad - money increased year - on - year. On December 15, 2025, the central bank will conduct a reverse repurchase operation. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds on Friday [5]. - Strategy View: The bond market is expected to oscillate at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai Gold rose 0.84%, and Shanghai Silver fell 2.28%. The Fed's dovish statement has both positive and negative impacts on silver prices. The overseas spot tightness logic of silver has weakened [8][9]. - Strategy View: Hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude for silver [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The copper price declined after rising, LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot market had different performance in different regions [12]. - Strategy View: The risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn to an oscillating trend [13]. Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum price declined, the inventory decreased in some areas, and the LME inventory increased [14]. - Strategy View: Aluminum prices have strong support and may rise further after adjustment [15]. Zinc - Market Information: The zinc price rose, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME inventory slowly increased [16][17]. - Strategy View: Zinc may give back some gains [18]. Lead - Market Information: The lead price declined, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [19]. - Strategy View: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range [19]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price was weak, the nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rebounded [20]. - Strategy View: Nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - Market Information: The tin price declined, the production and demand of tin were in different situations, and the inventory increased [22]. - Strategy View: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The lithium carbonate price increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate also increased [24]. - Strategy View: The lithium carbonate price is expected to be adjusted in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [25]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index rose, the spot price in Shandong decreased, and the futures inventory decreased [26][27]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [28]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless - steel price rose slightly, the raw material price was stable, and the inventory decreased [29]. - Strategy View: The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern and lacks a clear direction, and it is recommended to wait and see [29]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The casting aluminum alloy price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the market atmosphere was general [30]. - Strategy View: The casting aluminum alloy price may maintain range fluctuations [31]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, the rebar inventory decreased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory had difficulty in de - stocking [33]. - Strategy View: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to winter storage policies [34]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore price rose slightly, the overseas shipment volume changed, and the port inventory increased [35][36]. - Strategy View: Iron ore prices are estimated to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass price declined, the inventory decreased, and the supply and demand were in a weak - balance state; the soda - ash price declined, the inventory decreased, and the supply pressure increased [38][39]. - Strategy View: Glass is expected to show narrow - range oscillation, and soda ash is expected to be under downward pressure [38][39]. Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - Market Information: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose slightly, and the prices showed different trends [40][41][42]. - Strategy View: They are affected by the black sector and cost factors, and attention should be paid to manganese ore and electricity prices [43][44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial - silicon price rose, the production and demand decreased; the polysilicon price rose, the production was expected to decline, and the demand was weak [45][46][48][49]. - Strategy View: Both are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to relevant factors [46][47][49]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated. The low inventory and winter - storage demand were positive factors, and there were differences between bulls and bears [51][52]. - Strategy View: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish short - term strategy and conduct short - term operations [56]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude - oil price declined, and the inventory of refined oil products changed [57]. - Strategy View: Adopt a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait and see in the short - term [58]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol price declined, the regional spot prices changed, and the port inventory decreased [59]. - Strategy View: It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [60]. Urea - Market Information: The urea price declined, the regional spot prices changed, and the inventory decreased [61]. - Strategy View: It is expected to build a bottom through oscillation, and it is recommended to go long on dips [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, the inventory and production changed [63]. - Strategy View: Go long on non - integrated profits when the inventory inflection point appears [64]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC price declined, the cost was stable, the production decreased, and the demand was weak [65]. - Strategy View: Short - sell on rallies [67]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene - glycol price rose, the production decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [68]. - Strategy View: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and the risk of inventory reversal [69]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA price declined, the production was stable, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70]. - Strategy View: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and valuation, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [71][72]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX price declined, the production changed, and the inventory increased [73]. - Strategy View: Look for long - buying opportunities on dips [74]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE price declined, the production decreased, the inventory decreased, and the demand was in a seasonal off - season [75]. - Strategy View: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP price declined, the production increased, the inventory decreased, and the demand was seasonally oscillating [77][78]. - Strategy View: Wait for the change in the cost - side supply - demand pattern in the first quarter of next year [79]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: The pig price rose over the weekend, the consumption increased, and the supply was high [81]. - Strategy View: Short - sell after the consumption rebound and look for long - buying opportunities in the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - Market Information: The egg price was stable with partial weakness, the supply was under general pressure, and the demand was difficult to increase [82]. - Strategy View: Short - sell on rallies in the near - term and pay attention to the upper pressure in the long - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price declined, the domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, the production and demand were in a certain state, and the global soybean supply was expected to change [84]. - Strategy View: It is expected to run in an oscillating manner [85]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The palm oil production and export data changed, the domestic oil price declined at night, and there was a de - stocking expectation in the Southeast Asian origin [86]. - Strategy View: Observe high - frequency data for short - term operations [87]. Sugar - Market Information: The sugar price declined, the production of major sugar - producing countries was expected to change, and the global supply - demand relationship was expected to shift [88][89]. - Strategy View: Wait and see in the short - term [90]. Cotton - Market Information: The cotton price oscillated, the spot price rose, the downstream opening rate was stable, and the global cotton production was adjusted [91]. - Strategy View: It is difficult to have a unilateral trend [92].