五矿期货农产品早报2025-12-15：五矿期货农产品早报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Soybean and Soybean Meal: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, and the bottom of import cost may have been reached, but upward space requires greater production cuts. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [2][4]. - Oils: Malaysian palm oil production in December showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in the first ten days, and exports from December 1 - 10 rose by 46.98% compared to the previous month. Despite current high inventories, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. Palm oil is expected to trade with short - term fluctuations and a potential upward trend in the future [6]. - Sugar: Newly estimated sugar production in major producing countries is increasing, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. International sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended [10][11]. - Cotton: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely due to limited driving forces and hedging pressure [13][14]. - Eggs: With high egg production inventory and limited short - term demand growth, egg prices are expected to decline slightly this week and then stabilize. The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17][18]. - Pigs: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Last Friday, CBOT soybeans closed lower. Although China is continuously purchasing US soybeans, the sales progress is slow, and South American soybean - growing areas have received good rainfall. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly over the weekend. MYSTEEL estimates that this week's soybean crushing volume will be 2.0445 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons last week. The feed enterprise inventory days were 9.13 last week, up 0.64 days from the previous week [2]. - Strategy: Soybean import cost has a bottom support, but the upward space is limited. With high domestic inventories and under pressure on crushing margins, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [4]. Oils - Market Information: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month. Shipments from December 1 - 10 were 280,048 tons, up 46.98% from the previous month. Last Friday, domestic oil futures closed lower at night, pressured by Malaysian palm oil inventory build - up and increased production [6]. - Strategy: Although current palm oil inventories are high, there is a de - stocking expectation in the medium - term. The MPOB monthly report may have short - term negative impacts, but there is a seasonal upward trend. Short - term operations based on high - frequency data are recommended [8]. Sugar - Market Information: On Friday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell slightly. Spot sugar prices in major regions also declined, except for processed sugar, which remained stable. Green Pool expects Thailand's sugar production to increase by 6% in the 2025/26 season but decrease in the 2026/27 season. As of November 30, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased in the week ending December 10 [9][10]. - Strategy: With an expected increase in global sugar production, international sugar prices may not improve significantly until next year's first quarter. Domestic sugar prices are at a low level, and short - term observation is recommended [11]. Cotton - Market Information: On Friday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were volatile. The spot price index increased slightly. As of December 12, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.5%, unchanged from the previous week. The global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was slightly adjusted downwards [13]. - Strategy: Although the previous peak season was lackluster, post - season demand is not bad. With the commodity market's rebound, short - term capital inflows may push up cotton prices, but a unilateral trend is unlikely [14]. Eggs - Market Information: Egg prices were mostly stable over the weekend, with some areas showing weakness. The laying hen inventory remains high, and short - term demand is unlikely to increase [17]. - Strategy: The futures market's near - month contracts may squeeze the premium, and long - term attention should be paid to the upper pressure [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Pig prices rose over the weekend. Snow in the north affected pig sales, and consumption in both the north and south increased due to the cold weather [20]. - Strategy: With the approaching consumption peak, the spot market is warming up, and the futures market is stabilizing. However, due to high supply in the near - month, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to short after the consumption - driven rebound, and consider reverse spreads or long positions in the far - month contracts [21].