国泰海通晨报-20251215

Macro Research - The overall policy tone is moderate, with a lowered evaluation of external risks, emphasizing short-term domestic demand expansion and long-term internal capability building [3][4] - The macro policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a positive tone without excessive stimulus, focusing on "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" adjustments [3][4] Strategy Research - The market is anticipated to become more active, with a "transformation bull" market expected to rise after a prolonged period of sideways movement, particularly in technology, brokerage, insurance, and consumer sectors [2][8] - The cross-year offensive has begun, with a more optimistic outlook compared to market consensus, as the central economic work conference emphasizes consolidating and expanding economic stability [8][34] Food and Beverage Research - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, with a strong upward trend anticipated in 2026 due to reduced supply-side expansion and increased demand from processing capacity [11][12] - The beef cycle is expected to continue, with profitability elasticity for livestock companies anticipated due to the resonance of meat and milk cycles [11][12]