黄金、白银期货品种周报-20251215

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Date Range: December 15 - 19, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The Shanghai Gold futures are in a sideways stage and may be at the beginning of a new trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the main contract 2602 first declined and then rose, breaking through strongly and closing at a recent high. This was due to the Fed's strengthened rate - cut expectations, a weaker US dollar, and large inflows of funds and institutional positions. However, short - term gains are large, and there is a risk of correction due to profit - taking [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 was expected to continue high - level consolidation in the short term. The upper pressure level was 960 - 970 yuan/gram, and the lower support level was 920 - 930 yuan/gram. It was recommended to wait and see [10] - This Week's Strategy: The Shanghai Gold contract 2602 is cautiously bullish. The upper pressure level is 985 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the lower support level is 935 - 950 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventories, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward stage and are currently at the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Shanghai Silver 2602 hit a new record high. The market was driven by the Fed's rate - cut, a weaker US dollar, and the breakthrough of international silver prices. The squeeze - out risk caused by low global inventories further pushed up prices. Although domestic inventories increased, the structural contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term impact of the margin increase and price limit expansion by the Shanghai Futures Exchange was limited, but prices are significantly overbought, and there are risks of increased high - level volatility and policy regulation [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2602 was expected to strengthen in short - term consolidation. The upper pressure level was 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kilogram, and the lower support level was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/kilogram. It was recommended to buy on dips [34] - This Week's Strategy: The silver contract 2602 will operate strongly at high levels. The upper pressure level is 14,500 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram, and the lower support level is 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to buy on dips [35] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventories, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]