情绪降温，锂价中线承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the lithium market is cooling, and lithium prices are under medium - term pressure. In December, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and the destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month due to the weakening of the power sector, while supply will increase both at home and abroad, and the market may shift to inventory accumulation. [6] Summary According to the Directory 1. Demand Analysis 1.1 New Energy Vehicles - Domestic Market - Off - season Approaching: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 1522,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales were 12,466,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. In the off - season, vehicle sales in January are the lowest of the year, and the implementation of new annual long - term agreements may affect the production scheduling of some enterprises. [13] - Overseas Market - Possible Slowdown in Electrification: In 2025 from January to October, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million units; European sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million units; US sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million units. The US canceled IRA subsidies on October 1st, while most European countries still have subsidies and carbon emission requirements. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to November 2025 totaled 2.283 million units, a year - on - year increase of 100%. [19] 1.2 Energy Storage Market - The domestic energy storage orders are booming, mainly due to the "rush - to - export" demand. From January to November, the cumulative production of Chinese energy storage cells was 466.9 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 53%. However, production capacity bottlenecks limit the growth of production scheduling, and the production scheduling in December decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. [24] 1.3 December's Downstream Production Scheduling Weakens - In November, the production of batteries, cells, positive electrodes, and electrolytes showed different trends of increase or decrease. In December, the production scheduling of most products decreased month - on - month. In January, affected by the weakening of the power sector, the off - season will continue, and a continued month - on - month negative growth is expected. [30] 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Weekly Production of Lithium Carbonate Increases Slightly - From January to November, the domestic lithium carbonate production was 871,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44%. The production scheduling in December is 98,000 tons. If the actual production of Jiaxiaowo exceeds 1,000 tons, it will accelerate inventory accumulation. This week, the production of lithium carbonate from mica decreased, while that from spodumene continued to increase. [34] 2.2 China's Monthly Lithium Carbonate Production by Raw Material - The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as salt lakes, spodumene, mica, and recycling shows different trends throughout the year. [36] 2.3 December's Supply of Lithium Carbonate Increases Marginally - From January to October 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 197,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. In November, Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. [45] 3. Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory 3.1 Estimation of Lithium Carbonate Supply - Demand Balance No specific data - based balance estimation content is provided other than a graph. 3.2 The Destocking Speed of Lithium Carbonate Decreases Slightly Month - on - Month - This week, the social inventory decreased by 2,133 tons, including a decrease of 1,606 tons in smelter inventory and 957 tons in downstream inventory, while other inventories increased by 430 tons. The production increased by 59 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts continued to rise in December after being concentratedly cancelled at the end of November. [52] Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Industrial Level: The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are weakening, the energy storage market is booming, the production scheduling of cathode factories remains high, and some export demands are slightly affected. In December, the supply - demand is marginally loose, and destocking is expected to slow down. In January, demand may decline month - on - month, and supply will increase both at home and abroad, with a possible shift to inventory accumulation. [6] - Futures Level: There is a lack of new bullish drivers recently. The stock price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has dropped significantly. After the lithium price reached near the previous high, it decreased with a reduction in positions, indicating capital outflows. In the future, pay attention to the effectiveness of the support near 91,000. - Strategies: Hold short positions; temporarily hold off on arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options. [6]