镍作为空配品种延续下行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel is recommended as a short position and is expected to continue its downward trend. The trading strategies include testing the previous low for single - side trading and selling out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. Stainless steel follows the nickel price, with prices in a low - level oscillation due to weak supply and demand and weak cost support [1][5][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 314,000 tons, with an increase of 2,038 tons this week. LME inventory is 253,000 tons, a decrease of 264 tons this week, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,122 tons [11] Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period in previous years [15] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis Nickel - Supply: SMM statistics show that refined nickel production from January to November increased by 19% year - on - year to 361,300 tons. In November, pure nickel production decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 25,800 tons, and it is expected to slightly rebound to 27,400 tons in December. From January to October 2025, net imports of domestic refined nickel were 47,200 tons, compared with net exports of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, there was a net export, with Russian nickel imports only about 1,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 383,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54% [23] - Demand: From January to November, pure nickel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 268,000 tons. Electroplating consumption declined seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. SMM's survey shows that the PMI of nickel downstream industries in November remained below 50. In December, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials decreased significantly month - on - month, electroplating was still in the off - season, and alloy consumption alone was not enough to support demand, so pure nickel consumption continued to decline month - on - month [26] Stainless Steel - Raw Materials - Nickel Ore: Nickel ore prices remained stable with a slight decline. In November 2025, Indonesia imported about 1.65 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.25 million tons (a decrease of 43.08%), and a year - on - year increase of about 1.15 million tons (an increase of 229.99%). In December, the domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat month - on - month, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia continued to decline slightly, with a slight decrease in CIF transaction prices [28] - NPI: NPI was in a loss state, and there was a game between upstream and downstream. High - nickel iron prices continued to fall, and some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [30][75] - Chromium Series: Chromium ore prices rebounded this week. Tsingshan Group's long - term procurement price for high - carbon ferrochromium in December 2025 was 8,395 yuan/50 - base tons (cash - inclusive ex - works price), a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan, and the Tianjin Port receiving price was 150 yuan lower per 50 - base tons. The spot price was 7,950 yuan/50 - base tons [42] - Cold - Rolled Cost: Cold - rolled costs were inverted. On December 12th, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost was around 12,950 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reached 12,450 yuan/ton [44][46] - Supply: According to Steel Union's forecast, the combined stainless - steel crude steel output of China and India from January to November was 41.353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In December, the production schedules of China and India decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series, while the 300 - series decreased by less than 20,000 tons month - on - month [54] - Demand: The ship - building industry had the highest growth rate and provided support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of ship - building plate output from January to October reached 29%, while the growth rates in other terminal fields were not optimistic [56] New Energy Vehicles - Domestic Market: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 62.2%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4% to 111.42 GWh from January to November, and a projected month - on - month decrease of 2% in December [62] - Overseas Market: According to CleanTechnica statistics, from January to October 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million, compared with a 25.5% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million, and US new energy vehicle sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1st, leading to a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still provided subsidies for new energy vehicles and had carbon - emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, China's total new energy vehicle exports were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [68] Nickel Sulfate Market - Production: From January to November, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 6.9% year - on - year to 319,000 tons, and the production of ternary precursors decreased by 16% year - on - year to 648,000 tons, while the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 17% year - on - year to 737,000 tons. After December, entering the off - season, the demand for nickel sulfate may slow down [70] - Raw Materials: From January to November, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 45% year - on - year to 4.05 million tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 25% year - on - year to 1.89 million tons. The price of sulfur increased significantly this year, raising the cost of hydrometallurgy and the cost of MHP, while the price of MHP remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production. Due to the continuous decline in NPI prices, some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [75] Pure Nickel - The significant reduction in pure nickel production narrowed the domestic surplus [76]