国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251215

Report Overview - Date: December 15, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Research Area: Green Finance and New Energy Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Nickel: Excess shows a structural shift, with attention on Indonesian policy risks [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices oscillate at low levels [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: De - stocking continues, but spot trading is weak, and range - bound oscillations persist [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Monitor the environmental protection progress in Xinjiang [2][12] - Polysilicon: The futures market oscillates at high levels [2][12] Detailed Summaries by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data -沪镍主力收盘价115,590元，较前一交易日跌280元；不锈钢主力收盘价12,565元，涨65元 [4] - 1进口镍价格116,000元，降700元；俄镍升贴水600元，不变 [4] News - 印尼林业工作组接管超148公顷镍矿区，预计月影响镍矿产量约600金属吨 [4] - 中国暂停对俄进口铜和镍非官方补贴 [5] - 印尼对190家采矿公司制裁，提交索赔计划可取消 [5][6] - 印尼规范矿山RKAB审批程序 [6] - 特朗普宣称或对中国额外征100%关税并管制软件出口 [6] - 印尼暂停发放新冶炼许可证 [7] - 印尼园区安全检查影响镍湿法项目产量，12月约6000镍金属吨 [7] - 纽约联储主席等发表鸽派言论，提升12月降息概率 [7] - 中国对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理 [7] Trend Intensity - Nickel: 0; Stainless Steel: 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - 2601合约收盘价95,920元，跌1,060元；成交量47,866手，降7,332手 [9] - 现货-2601为 - 1,420元，电池级碳酸锂94,500元，涨1,000元 [9] News - SMM电池级碳酸锂指数价涨，均价9.45万元/吨 [10] - 30家样本锂矿贸易商库存增，可售库存11.4万吨 [10][11] Trend Intensity - Lithium Carbonate: 0 [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Si2601收盘价8,435元，涨150元；PS2605收盘价57,190元，涨1,425元 [12] - 工业硅社会库存56.1万吨，企业库存18.7万吨 [12] - 多晶硅厂家库存29.3万吨，企业利润8.0元/千克 [12] News - 2025年Q3美国新增光伏装机11.7GW，同比增20%、环比增49%，但行业有扩张抑制因素 [12][13][14] Trend Intensity - Industrial Silicon: 0; Polysilicon: 0 [14]