国新国证期货早报-20251215

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On December 12, 2025, the A - share market showed a mixed performance across different sectors. Some sectors like stock index futures rose, while others such as coke, coal, and some commodities faced downward pressure. The market is influenced by various factors including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and external news [1][2][3]. - Different commodities are in different supply - demand situations. For example, the soybean market has abundant supply in the short - term but faces long - term supply pressure; the pig market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand; and the copper market has support from macro and supply - demand factors but also faces callback risks [5][6]. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On December 12, the three major A - share indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.84% to 13258.33 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.97% to 3194.36 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2092.2 billion yuan, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and closed at 4580.95, a rise of 28.77 compared to the previous day [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On December 12, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1548.6, a decrease of 51.0 compared to the previous day. The weighted coking coal index remained weak, closing at 999.7 yuan, a decrease of 34.5 compared to the previous day [2][3]. - For coke, the first - round reduction of spot purchase prices has been implemented, supply is stable, but demand may weaken due to potential steel mill production cuts. The second - round price reduction has started, and coking enterprises maintain high production due to improved profitability. For coking coal, affected by Mongolia's plan to increase coal exports next year, it dropped significantly on the 11th. The supply is tight, but the Mongolian coal port's customs clearance has recovered to a high level, and the market trading sentiment is cold [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the strengthening of short - term technical indicators, short - sellers closed their positions, pushing up the US sugar price on Friday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated slightly higher. As of the week ending November 18, speculators reduced their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 11,860 lots to 201,910 lots [4]. Rubber - Affected by Thailand's rubber price - stabilizing measures, Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly higher on Friday. As of December 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's natural rubber inventory increased by 12324 tons to 105542 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 11460 tons to 56990 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 604 tons to 61689 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 2218 tons to 59573 tons [4]. Soybean and Bean Meal - Multiple institutions estimate that the soybean production in South America is still at a historically high level. The sowing of Argentine soybeans is 58% complete, and the crop quality is fair. The US Department of Agriculture estimates Brazil's and Argentina's soybean production at 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively, the same as in November. - On December 12, the M2605 main contract of domestic bean meal closed at 2770 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.73%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil mills have a high crushing volume. However, the extension of customs clearance time and the pre - holiday stocking of feed enterprises have relieved the supply pressure of bean meal. The bean meal futures show a near - strong and far - weak pattern [5]. Live Pigs - On December 12, the LH2603 main contract of live pigs closed at 11325 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.94%. The supply of live pigs in the market is abundant, which suppresses the futures price. Although the consumption of pork has improved marginally due to the drop in temperature and the start of the traditional curing season in the southwest region, the current consumption recovery is still mild, and the market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [6]. Shanghai Copper - On Friday, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of rising during the day and falling sharply at night, with a slight overall increase. The highest price was 94360 yuan/ton, and it closed at 91550 yuan/ton at night. Short - term macro - economic easing and supply - demand balance support the copper price, but high prices may suppress downstream demand and lead to profit - taking and callback risks [6]. Iron Ore - On December 12, the 2605 main contract of iron ore fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.33% to 760.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore increased, the arrival volume continued to decline, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand in the off - season decreased, and the iron water production decreased further. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Asphalt - On December 12, the 2602 main contract of asphalt fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.34% to 2962 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, the inventory reduction rate continued to slow down, the demand in the north was flat, and the terminal demand in the south was weak. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price shows a volatile trend in the short term [6]. Logs - On Friday, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 747.5, with the lowest price of 743.5, the highest price of 750, and closed at 749, with an increase of 10 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to position transfer and spot - end support. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged compared to the previous day, and the supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions. Future attention should be paid to spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - market sentiment [6][7][8]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13905 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 142 lots compared to the previous day, and downstream spinning mills purchase as needed [8]. Steel - The Central Economic Work Conference released positive macro - policy signals, which are conducive to market stability. However, the steel market is currently dominated by fundamentals. On the 12th, cold wave, snowstorm, and gale warnings were issued, and the demand for steel in the off - season further weakened. In the short term, the demand contraction may be greater than the supply, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the steel price shows a weak and volatile trend [8]. Alumina - As the pre - Spring Festival transportation capacity decreases and the delivery warehouse releases expired warehouse receipts, holders' inventory and sales pressure increase, leading to low - price sales. The electrolytic aluminum enterprises have sufficient raw material inventory, and although short - term production cuts may drive the price up, it is difficult to pass on the price increase to the end - market. The overall supply of ore is increasing, and the price is in a downward process. The alumina market has a supply - demand mismatch, the social inventory is accumulating, and the cost - side support is weakening [8]. Shanghai Aluminum - In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. The transportation in the northwest is restricted, and the arrival at the consumption area is normal. In terms of demand, although December is the traditional off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, the aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. The current market is more affected by macro - expectations, with macro - factors being positive and fundamentals having both long and short factors [8].