沪铜或以震荡偏强趋势运行

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2601 of Shanghai copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, ranging from around 90,700 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 94,570 yuan/ton [8]. - Last week, the LME copper futures price showed an oscillating and slightly strengthening trend, with the contract price running around 11,434 - 11,952 US dollars/ton [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspect - In November 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the average national consumer price was flat compared with the same period of the previous year. In November, the national consumer price decreased by 0.1% month - on - month [3][14][44]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 12, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 93,970 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 92,820 yuan/ton, 92,860 yuan/ton, 92,970 yuan/ton, and 92,910 yuan/ton respectively. The current average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [17]. - As of December 12, 2025, the electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The current spot premium is at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [17]. 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.03 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.38 US cents/pound. As of December 12, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumao was 93,830 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 83,600 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 1,870 yuan/ton. The current refined - scrap price difference is at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,389 tons, an increase of 484 tons compared with the previous week [31]. - As of December 10, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 164,975 tons, a decrease of 700 tons compared with the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 40.4% [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 447,298 tons, an increase of 2,132 tons compared with the previous trading day [31]. - As of December 11, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,500 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 14,900 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 35,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 600 tons compared with the previous week [31]. 6. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The copper processing fee continues the downward trend and is still at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference continues to expand, and the scrap copper price rises relatively slowly. The Shanghai copper inventory has a slight increase, and the inventory level is at a relatively high position in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [3][44]. 7. Market Outlook - Copper prices are likely to show a mainly oscillating and slightly strengthening trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai copper. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for options contracts [4][45].