研究报告：拍卖消息扰动市场，短期震荡格局难改

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Last week, affected by the corn auction news, the market's bearish sentiment quickly rose, and both futures and spot prices weakened. Currently, the grain sales progress in the producing areas is faster than the same period last year, increasing the supply in the spot market. The expectation of overdue wheat auctions has further dampened the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. However, recent snow and rain in the north have reduced the arrival of corn trucks in the North China producing areas, tightening the spot market supply and supporting prices. In the short term, corn prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [9][80]. Summary by Directory 1.走势回顾 (一)期货价格 - Last week, the corn futures prices fluctuated weakly. As of the night session on Friday, the main contract C2601 closed at 2,242 yuan/ton, down 0.04%, and C2603 closed at 2,234 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The CBOT corn futures main contract fluctuated, closing at 440.50 cents per bushel [6][13][17]. (二)现货价格 - Last week, the national average weekly price of corn was 2,321 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous week. Corn prices in Northeast China declined slightly, those in North China first rose then fell, prices in the selling areas decreased slightly, and prices at the northern ports adjusted narrowly [8][22][24]. (三)基差 - As of last Friday, the basis of Dalian Port corn - the main contract was 58 yuan/ton, 23 yuan/ton stronger than the previous week [28]. 2.上周相关信息回顾 - The total sown area of 8 major field crops in the US in 2026 is expected to decrease slightly. Market expectations for the ending stocks of US wheat, corn, and soybeans in 2025/26 will be moderately adjusted. Analysts expect Brazil's total corn production to be 1.3196 billion tons, slightly higher than the November estimate. Brazil's corn exports in November increased compared to last year. Ukraine's grain exports from July to December 5 decreased compared to last year. Argentina's corn planting progress has accelerated. The US Department of Agriculture will release export sales reports, and analysts expect US corn export net sales to be between 1 - 2 million tons for the week ending November 6, 2025 [29][30][33]. - Many regions and institutions have released a series of information on corn production, exports, and policies, including the US, Brazil, Ukraine, Argentina, and others. For example, Brazil's corn export forecast for December has been raised, and the US government will provide a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan [34][35][40]. 3.玉米供需格局分析 1.饲料企业库存情况 - As of December 11, the average inventory of national sample feed enterprises was 29.53 days, an increase of 0.86 days from the previous week, up 3% month - on - month and down 2.51% year - on - year. Feed enterprise inventories continued to increase this period but remained at a low level in recent years [47]. 2.深加工企业玉米库存情况 - As of December 11, the total corn inventory of national sample deep - processing enterprises was 2.94 million tons, up 6.75% month - on - month and down 28.8% year - on - year [51]. 3.深加工企业玉米消耗情况 - Last week, national major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.4167 million tons of corn, a decrease of 0.09 million tons from the previous week. Different types of deep - processing enterprises had different consumption changes [56]. 4.深加工企业开机情况 - Last week, the corn processing volume, starch output, and operating rate of corn starch enterprises all increased slightly. The total corn processing volume of major corn starch processing enterprises was 635,700 tons, an increase of 89,000 tons from the previous week [61]. 5.深加工企业利润情况 - Recently, high corn prices have shrunk the profits of deep - processing enterprises. However, the profits of processing enterprises in Shandong have improved. As of last Friday, the hedging by - product profits of corn starch in Jilin, Shandong, and Heilongjiang showed different trends [66]. 6.进出口情况 - In October 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of corn, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous month and 110,000 tons from the same period last year. From January to October 2025, China imported 1.29 million tons of corn, a decrease of 11.84 million tons from the same period last year [70]. 4.关联品情况 1.玉米淀粉 - Last week, the national average price of corn starch was 2,720 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The prices in different regions showed different trends [75]. 2.生猪 - Last week, the hog price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The national average hog slaughter price was 11.19 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week, down 0.27% month - on - month and 28.59% year - on - year [79]. 5.后市展望 and 操作策略 - Short - term corn prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. For trading strategies, treat it as a fluctuating market for single - sided trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [9][80][81].