市场缺乏明显驱动，盘面延续区间震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market lacks obvious drivers in the short term, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber contract RU2605 ranged from 14,960 to 15,350 yuan/ton, showing a trend of first declining and then rising, with an overall slight increase. As of the closing on Friday, December 12, 2025, the contract closed at 15,230 yuan/ton, up 165 points or 1.1% for the week [6][15] Spot Price - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from last week [19] Port Arrival Price - As of December 12, 2025, the port arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,090 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state-owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly compared with last week. As of December 12, 2025, the basis was maintained at -280 yuan/ton, narrowing by 135 yuan/ton compared with last week [26] Domestic and Overseas Prices - As of December 12, 2025, both domestic and overseas prices of natural rubber increased slightly compared with last week [29] Important Market Information - On the early morning of December 11, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and launched a short-term Treasury bill purchase plan [30] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week surged, and the number of continued jobless claims decreased [30] - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US GDP growth rate will reach 3% this year, and inflation is expected to decline significantly next year [30] - US President Trump said he would support immediate and significant interest rate cuts [31] - ADP data showed that the average weekly employment growth of US private employers ended a four - week decline [31] - The Federal Reserve raised its GDP forecast for 2025 - 2028 [31] - The "Fed whisperer" said that there is a difference of opinion within the Fed on whether inflation or the employment market is a greater concern [31] - The US employment cost index growth rate slowed down in the third quarter [31] - The UNCTAD report showed that global trade volume will increase by about 7% in 2025 [32] - The World Bank and the IMF raised their forecasts for China's economic growth rate in 2025 [33] - China's CPI and PPI data for November 2025 were released [33] - The Central Economic Work Conference was held, setting the tone for next year's economic work [34] - The China Index Academy predicted the situation of the real estate market in 2026 [34] - The passenger car market retail data for November 2025 showed a decline in fuel - vehicle sales and an increase in new - energy vehicle sales [35] - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly [35] - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales increased significantly year - on - year [36] Supply - Side Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the total output of major natural rubber producing countries was 1.071 million tons, an increase of 3.57 tons or 3.45% from the previous month, with a continued slight decline in the growth rate [41] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber output was 782,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [44] - As of October 31, 2025, China's cumulative synthetic rubber output was 7.387 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [47] - As of October 31, 2025, China's imports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 9,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.26% [50] Demand - Side Situation - As of December 11, 2025, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week [53] - As of November 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [57][60] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - truck sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month [66] - As of October 31, 2025, China's monthly tire outer tube output decreased year - on - year [69] - As of October 31, 2025, China's exports of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month [74] Inventory - Side Situation - As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 11,460 tons compared with last week [81] - As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory, Qingdao's total inventory, bonded area inventory, and general trade inventory all increased [81] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The overseas main producing areas have a loose supply expectation, but the geopolitical tension between Thailand and Cambodia supports the cost. China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year [82] - Demand side: The operating rates of tire enterprises increased slightly last week, but the shipment was slow, and the tire inventory started to accumulate again. The growth rate of automobile production and sales in November decreased, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The export of rubber tires in the first 10 months increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand for all - steel tires is expected to weaken [83] - Inventory: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory all increased last week [83] 后市展望 - Macro: The Fed's interest - rate cut and China's economic work conference have warmed market sentiment. - Fundamentals: Supply has a loose expectation, but the cost is supported. Demand is good but has a weakening expectation. Inventory is seasonally accumulating. In the short term, the market lacks obvious drivers, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [84][85] Views and Operation Strategies - This week's view: It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate within a range in the short term [86] - Operation strategies: Adopt an interval operation strategy for single - side trading; pay attention to the band opportunity of going long on contract 01 and short on contract 05 for arbitrage; temporarily hold off on options [87]