纯碱周报：“供增需稳、库存去化”，纯碱价格多空交织-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current soda ash market lacks strong drivers. Under the pressure of high supply and expected future capacity increase, price rebound is weak. In the short term, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the transfer of the main contract and changes in macro - sentiment. [7][37] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to treat it with a short - term oscillatory mindset. Considering shorting lightly on rebounds for single - side trading, temporarily observing for arbitrage, and buying put options to replace short positions for options trading. [38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation Production and Capacity Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 735,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,500 tons or 4.48%. Light soda ash production was 337,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 397,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,300 tons. [8] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.35%, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 73.29%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.82%, a week - on - week increase of 3%. [10] Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,494,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,200 tons or 0.55%. Light soda ash inventory was 703,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,300 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 790,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,900 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 44,300 tons or 2.88%. Year - on - year, it decreased by 140,200 tons or 8.58%. [14] Shipment Situation Analysis - As of December 11, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 779,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.59%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 106.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 percentage points. [16] Profit Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process of Chinese soda ash was - 49 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50.25%. The cost decreased due to stable raw material salt prices and falling power coal prices, while the soda ash price was stable and the by - product ammonium chloride price increased. [19] - As of December 11, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process of Chinese soda ash was - 67.60 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.31%. The cost decreased due to stable sea salt prices and slightly falling anthracite prices, while the soda ash price was stable. [24] Downstream Industry Situation Float Glass Industry Production - As of December 4, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 155,000 tons, a 1.4% decrease compared to the 27th. The weekly production of national float glass from November 28 to December 4, 2025, was 1,085,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. [26] Float Glass Industry Inventory - As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.92 million weight boxes or 4.68%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.25%. The inventory days were 26.8 days, a decrease of 0.7 days compared to the previous period. [30] Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures continued to decline in a volatile manner, and the overall market sentiment was weak. The fundamental situation was a multi - factor intertwined pattern of "increasing supply, stable demand, and inventory reduction". [37] - On the supply side, after the maintenance of some devices was completed, the weekly production and capacity utilization rate increased significantly, indicating that the high - supply state remained unchanged. [37] - There was still rigid demand support, and the shipment of enterprises was acceptable, driving the continuous decline of the total inventory of manufacturers for several weeks, and the year - on - year change had turned negative, which gave soda ash manufacturers a certain price - holding mentality. [37] - However, the absolute level of inventory was still high, and the expectation of new capacity in the future continued to suppress the market. The trading atmosphere in the spot market was average, and downstream procurement was mainly for low - price rigid demand, with insufficient intention for large - scale stockpiling. [37] - On the cost side, the decline in power coal prices improved the profit of the co - production process, but the industry as a whole was still in the loss range, which formed a bottom support. [37]