市场利空，油脂震荡回落

Group 1: Report Summary - This week, the futures prices of oils and fats fluctuated and declined. The Y2605 soybean oil contract fell 1.06% to close at 7,994 yuan/ton, the P2605 palm oil contract dropped 2.40% to 8,552 yuan/ton, and the OI2605 rapeseed oil contract decreased 0.64% to 9,347 yuan/ton [5][30]. - In November, Malaysian palm oil production was 1.935 million tons, a 5.3% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1.213 million tons, a 28.13% month - on - month decrease; and inventory was 2.835 million tons, a 13.04% month - on - month increase. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 3.23% [6][30]. - The US USDA December monthly supply - demand report maintained the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory forecast at 290 million bushels, the export forecast at 1.635 billion bushels (a 13 - year low), and South American 2025/26 soybean production forecasts (Brazil: 175 million tons, Argentina: 48.5 million tons, Paraguay: 11 million tons). US soybeans fell 1.72% this week [7][31]. - In the short term, rapeseed oil supply is relatively tight and its trend is slightly stronger than that of soybean oil and palm oil. It is expected that vegetable oil prices will likely fluctuate and consolidate in the near future [8][31]. Group 2: Spot Analysis - As of December 11, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [9]. - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,580 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [10]. - As of December 12, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [12]. Group 3: Other Data - As of December 13, 2025, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 38,000 tons to 1.13 million tons. On December 10, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 736,000 tons [15]. - As of December 11, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 8,303,640 tons [19]. - As of December 11, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 534 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at an average level compared to the past 5 years [20]. - As of December 12, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 28 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [21]. - As of December 12, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 543 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years [22].