铝产业链年报：向阳而行，不忘风雨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, with prices under long - term pressure and the futures trading range likely to drop to 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton [2][59][170] - The global aluminum supply in 2026 is expected to grow at a rate of 1.4%, with overseas becoming an important growth point. Aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026, with the upper limit to be watched at 25000 yuan/ton [2][171] - The supply and demand of cast aluminum are in a delicate balance. Its price follows cost fluctuations and there are seasonal and macro - event - based arbitrage opportunities [2][120][172] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In 2025, alumina showed a weak and volatile pattern, with prices falling from around 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 2665 yuan/ton, then rebounding and finally fluctuating weakly near the cost line [9] - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum price generally showed an upward trend, with some fluctuations due to tariff policies. There were also opportunities for intra - month spread arbitrage and cross - market arbitrage [10] - Cast aluminum futures were launched on June 10, 2025. Its price showed an upward trend, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum changed during the year [11][12] 2. Macroeconomic Situation Overseas - The Fed may be hesitant to cut interest rates in the first quarter of 2026. The US economy may continue to expand in the third quarter, but inflation concerns may rise at the end of the year. The eurozone's inflation is approaching the target, and its monetary policy will remain stable [29][33][34] Domestic - China is expected to achieve its 2025 GDP growth target of 5%. In 2026, the GDP target is expected to be set at 5%. Fiscal policy will be proactive, and monetary policy will remain loose [35] 3. Alumina Adequate Imported Ore in 2026 - In 2025, the supply of bauxite was abundant, and the price of imported bauxite decreased. In 2026, the supply of bauxite is expected to be sufficient, with domestic and imported ore totaling about 280 million tons, and the price of imported ore may decline slightly [51][53][55] High Unreleased Alumina Capacity at Home and Abroad - In 2025, the alumina capacity was in surplus, and the price decreased. In 2026, the new domestic and overseas alumina capacity is expected to exceed 20 million tons, and the demand growth is lower than the supply growth [56][57] Overseas Alumina with Cost Advantage Flows into China - In 2025, China changed from a net importer to a net exporter of alumina. In 2026, China is expected to return to a net - importing pattern because of the cost advantage of overseas alumina [58] Increased Surplus Pressure and Cost - Based Price Competition - In 2026, the supply of alumina is expected to be in surplus, and the price will be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range likely to drop [59] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Limited Domestic Capacity Growth Space - In 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum capacity approached the ceiling. In 2026, the domestic capacity growth is limited, and the supply (production + net import) is expected to be about 46.78 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1.01% [87][88][89] Indonesia Contributes Main Incremental Space, but Power Situation Needs Attention - In 2025, the overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity increased by 1 million tons. In 2026, the overseas capacity is expected to increase by 1.2 million tons, and the production is expected to be about 30.6 million tons, with a growth rate of 2% [90][91][92] 5. Cast Aluminum Tight Scrap Aluminum Provides Long - Term Cost Support for Cast Aluminum - In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap aluminum was tight. In 2026, the domestic scrap aluminum supply is expected to be about 16.4 million tons, with a growth rate of 21% [112][114][115] Low Operating Rate of Cast Aluminum Alloy and Limited Capacity Expansion - In 2025, the operating rate of the cast aluminum alloy industry was low, and the capacity expansion slowed down. In 2026, the aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a net inflow [116][117][118] Cost and Profit of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, silicon, copper, natural gas, and other expenses. In 2026, the cost of cast aluminum is expected to remain firm [119] Consumption Balance and Views of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The supply of cast aluminum has excess built - in capacity, but the tight scrap aluminum and low profit limit the capacity expansion. The consumption of each segment is growing. The price of cast aluminum follows cost fluctuations, and there are arbitrage opportunities [120][121][172] 6. Consumption End Challenges Remain in Aluminum Product Exports in 2026 - In 2025, China's aluminum product exports decreased. In 2026, there are still challenges, but efforts are being made to diversify the market [136] Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market was at the bottom. In 2026, it is expected to continue to adjust, with the decline in new construction area narrowing slightly and the decline in completion area narrowing [137] Power - In 2025, the investment in the power grid increased. In 2026 - 2030, the annual investment in the power grid is expected to be about 75 billion yuan, and the aluminum consumption in the power sector will increase by about 650,000 tons [138][139] New Energy Sector - In 2025, the new - energy installation increased. In 2026, the photovoltaic installation is expected to decline, but the wind - power installation is expected to increase, offsetting part of the reduction in aluminum consumption [141][142][143] Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market developed well. In 2026, the domestic automobile sales are expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum consumption of new - energy vehicles is expected to increase by about 576,000 tons [144] Energy Storage - In 2025, the global energy - storage installation increased significantly. In 2026, the domestic and global energy - storage new - installation is expected to reach 17.2GW and 39.9GW respectively, with the aluminum consumption increasing [145][147] Data Center - In 2026, many large - scale data - center projects are planned to be built, which will drive the demand for aluminum [149] 7. Global Aluminum Supply Still in Shortage in 2026 - In 2026, the global electrolytic aluminum supply is expected to be 74.98 million tons, with a growth rate of 1.4%, and the consumption is expected to be 75.5 million tons, still in shortage [170] 8. Market Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to be under long - term pressure, with the futures trading range at 2400 - 3000 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, especially in the first half of 2026. Cast aluminum prices follow cost fluctuations [170][171][172]