短期需求降温，工业硅震荡下挫

Report Date - The report is dated December 15, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated downward. The emergence of a new polysilicon platform company short - term suppressed the demand side of industrial silicon. Supply was generally stable with Xinjiang's operating rate rising to 88%, while Southwest China's was low in the dry season. On the demand side, the polysilicon market had more confidence in industry self - discipline; silicon wafers had a weak reality and weak expectations; battery cells entered a production cut cycle; and component procurement weakened at the year - end. Industrial silicon social inventory rose to 561,000 tons, and the spot market price declined [2][5][9] - Overall, the new polysilicon platform improved the supply - demand expectation of the upstream silicon material market, but short - term suppressed industrial silicon demand. The main contract stabilized after hitting the 8200 level, and industrial silicon futures prices were expected to enter a stable and rebound trend [2][9] Market Data - From November 24 to December 1, the industrial silicon main contract price rose from 8960 yuan/ton to 9130 yuan/ton, a 1.90% increase; the price of oxygen - containing 553 and non - oxygen - containing 553 spot remained unchanged; the 421 spot price was stable; the 3303 spot price dropped from 10500 yuan/ton to 10450 yuan/ton, a 0.48% decrease; the organic silicon DMC spot price rose from 13100 yuan/ton to 13200 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase; the polysilicon dense material spot price was unchanged; and the industrial silicon social inventory rose from 548,000 tons to 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase [3] Market Analysis and Outlook Supply - Xinjiang's operating rate further increased to 88%, Southwest China's was low in the dry season, and Inner Mongolia and Gansu had limited production growth. Overall, the supply side was stable [2][5][9] Demand - The polysilicon market had more confidence in industry self - discipline; silicon wafers maintained a weak reality and weak expectations; battery cells entered a production cut cycle as rising raw material costs increased the market processing fee, causing battery factories to stop low - price orders (silver paste cost accounted for 60% of non - silicon cost); component procurement weakened at the year - end, with few new projects, and enterprise cost inventory would rise to about 31GW [2][5][7] Inventory - As of December 12, industrial silicon social inventory rose to 561,000 tons, and the exchange registered warehouse receipt inventory decreased to 43,000 tons. After the new warehouse receipt delivery standard, the mainstream 5 - series became the main delivery model, and the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered was increasing [8] Price Trend - The new polysilicon platform improved the supply - demand expectation of the upstream silicon material market but short - term suppressed industrial silicon demand. The main contract stabilized after hitting the 8200 level, and industrial silicon futures prices were expected to enter a stable and rebound trend [2][5][9] Industry News BC Technology - BC technology is breaking the homogeneous and price - war competition in the photovoltaic industry. Despite challenges, the industry is working on cost - reduction technologies. It is expected that BC products will have a market share of over 30% in 3 - 5 years, and BC technology may become the lowest - cost single - crystal silicon technology [10] Longi Green Energy - After more than three years of planning, Longi Green Energy terminated its GDR issuance plan due to external changes and the expiration of relevant resolutions. The original plan was to raise about 19.996 billion yuan for five projects [11] Related Charts - The report includes charts showing industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main production area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, industrial silicon spot prices, and polysilicon and organic silicon spot prices [13][17][18]