马棕油累库超预期，棕榈油区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil fell 134 to close at 4,018 ringgit/ton, a decline of 3.23%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 162 to close at 8,608 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.85%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 26 to close at 8,240 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.31%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 10 to close at 9,608 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%; the main contract of CBOT soybean oil fell 1.1 to close at 50.6 cents/pound, a decline of 2.13%; the active contract of ICE rapeseed rose 0.2 to close at 618.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.03% [4][6]. - Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats. The MPOB report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, mainly due to a significant decline in export demand and unexpected inventory accumulation, which was bearish. High - frequency data showed that the estimated output in early December increased month - on - month and exports continued to be weak, so Malaysian palm oil inventory in December may continue to increase. Near - month soybean oil had limited decline due to short - term supply shortage expectations; US soybean oil fluctuated and declined following US soybeans; Russian imported rapeseed oil was returned due to quarantine issues, so rapeseed oil had good resistance to decline [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, attention should be paid to the release of the US November non - farm payrolls data, the interest rate decisions of central banks in Japan, Europe, etc. The US dollar index weakened, and oil prices fluctuated weakly. Fundamentally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of November exceeded expectations, which was bearish. High - frequency data showed that the output of Malaysian palm oil maintained an increasing trend in early December, and export demand continued to weaken. It is expected that the inventory in December may still increase. Short - term palm oil is expected to fluctuate within a range [4][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The main trading data of the market last week included price changes and percentage changes of various contracts such as CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as spot prices and price differences between different oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil output in November was 1.94 million tons, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month; the export volume was 1.21 million tons, a 28.13% decrease from the previous month; the ending inventory at the end of November was 2.84 million tons, a 13.04% increase from the previous month, and the market expectation was 2.66 million tons, so the report was bearish [7]. - From December 1 - 10, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.24% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month, and the output increased by 6.87% month - on - month. According to different shipping survey institutions' data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from December 1 - 10 showed different changes compared with the same period last month [7][8]. - Malaysia's industry regulatory agency said that Malaysia's palm oil output is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time this year. Assuming favorable weather conditions and continuous harvesting efficiency, Malaysia's palm oil output this year is expected to be between 20 million and 20.5 million tons [8]. - CIMB Securities said that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to increase by 3.0% month - on - month to 2.93 million tons, exports are expected to increase by 2.0% month - on - month, which is not enough to offset the estimated output growth. The output of palm oil in December is expected to decrease by 11% month - on - month to 1.72 million tons [8]. - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1937 million tons, a decrease of 0.38 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 272,000 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.163 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 180,700 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 683,700 tons, an increase of 302,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 167,000 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 347,000 tons, a decrease of 182,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 75,700 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 16,520 tons, compared with 27,380 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 320 tons, compared with 140 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - An Indonesian official said that a special government task force has ordered dozens of palm oil - planting and mining companies to pay a total fine of 386.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah (equivalent to $2.31 billion) for illegal operations in forest areas. The task force has seized 3.7 million hectares of plantations and more than 5,300 hectares of mining areas and aims to reach 4 million hectares by the end of the year [10]. - The USDA report showed that the global palm oil output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.016 million tons, a downward revision of 800,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. The global ending inventory of palm oil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 15.206 million tons, a downward revision of 383,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. The global palm oil export in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.433 million tons, a downward revision of 275,000 tons from the previous month's forecast. Among them, Indonesia's palm oil export is expected to be 23.7 million tons, a downward revision of 300,000 tons from the previous month's forecast; Malaysia's palm oil export is expected to be 16.1 million tons, the same as the previous month's forecast [10]. Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oil futures, and spot prices, as well as the inventory, output, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [11][13][15]