豆粕周报：近强远弱格局，主力震荡运行-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract fell 29 to close at 1076.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.62%; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 47 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.55%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 3060 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.32%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 14 to close at 2411 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.58%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2500 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.81% [4][7] - The December USDA report had a neutral impact on the US soybean balance sheet. Argentina slightly lowered its soybean export tariff, which had a bearish impact on sentiment. The market still had concerns about US soybean export demand. The South American crop outlook was positive, leading to a decline in US soybeans. The state reserve released 512,500 tons of imported soybeans, with a transaction rate of 77.5%, indicating good trading. Market news suggested that the clearance time for imported soybeans was extended. There was an expected increase in stocking demand before the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, resulting in a short - term strong supply and a stronger near - month contract. Meanwhile, the good weather in the South American production areas strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest, and the far - month contract performed weakly, showing a differentiation of the near - strong and far - weak structure [4][7] - In the next two weeks, the precipitation conditions in the South American production areas will be good, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The concerns about US soybean exports still exist, and the sales progress is slow, so US soybeans will fluctuate weakly. In China, the soybean auction had good results, the clearance time for imported soybeans may be extended, and the stocking demand before the New Year's Day and Spring Festival is expected to gradually increase. Some oil mills may run out of soybeans and shut down in January, leading to a short - term tight supply. However, the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America remains unchanged, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern will continue. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal 05 contract will fluctuate [4][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on December 12 was 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 29 from December 5, a decline of 2.62%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490 dollars per ton, up 9 from December 5, an increase of 1.87%. The CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 491 dollars per ton, down 7 from December 5, a decline of 1.41%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market was 186.30 yuan per ton, up 115.55 from December 5. The DCE soybean meal price was 3083 yuan per ton, up 47 from December 5, an increase of 1.55%. The CZCE rapeseed meal price was 2411 yuan per ton, up 14 from December 5, an increase of 0.58%. The soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 672 yuan per ton, up 33 from December 5. The spot price in East China was 3080 yuan per ton, up 40 from December 5, an increase of 1.32%. The spot price in South China was 3060 yuan per ton, up 60 from December 5, an increase of 2.00%. The spot - futures price difference in South China was - 23 yuan per ton, up 13 from December 5 [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The December USDA report had a neutral impact. In the 2025/2026 US soybean season, the planting area and yield per unit were not adjusted. The export demand remained at 1.635 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was 290 million bushels, the same as last month. The estimated soybean production in Brazil was 175 million tons, and that in Argentina was 48.5 million tons [8] - As of the week of November 13, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 696,000 tons, compared with 511,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 18.4 million tons, with a sales progress of 41.4%, compared with 61.9% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was - 100,000 tons, and the cumulative purchase volume was 364,000 tons [8] - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the gross profit of US soybean crushing was 2.45 dollars per bushel, down from 2.5 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was 320.87 dollars per short ton, down from 324 dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.37 cents per pound, down from 51.99 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.95 dollars per bushel, down from 11.16 dollars per bushel in the previous week [9] - Conab reported that as of the week of December 5, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 90.3%, up from 86% in the previous week, compared with 94.1% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 89.8%. It is expected that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.1236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6431 million tons, or 3.3%. AgRural reported that as of the week of December 4, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season had reached 94%, up from 89% in the previous week, compared with 95% in the same period last year. AgRural maintained its estimate of Brazilian soybean production at 178.5 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters announced that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in December would reach 3.33 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 2.81 million tons [10] - Argentina's economic minister said that the soybean export tax would be reduced from 26% to 24%, and the export tax on soybean by - products would be reduced from 24.5% to 22.5%. At the same time, the export taxes on wheat and barley would be reduced from 9.5% to 7.5%, and the export taxes on corn and sorghum would be reduced from 9.5% to 8.5%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week of November 26, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 58.6%, up from 44.7% in the previous week, compared with 64.7% in the same period last year [11] - The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, there will be abundant precipitation in the Brazilian soybean production areas, which is conducive to crop growth and development. In Argentina, the precipitation in the next two weeks will be higher than the average, and the precipitation will increase compared with the previous period. The South American crops maintain the expectation of a bumper harvest [11] - As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1552 million tons, a decrease of 184,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.6849 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a decrease of 41,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 481,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 6.3205 million tons, an increase of 2.4395 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3887 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.37 million tons, a decrease of 206,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.2749 million tons compared with the same period last year [11] - As of the week of December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in the country was 182,400 tons, including 61,100 tons of spot trading and 121,300 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the previous week was 140,300 tons. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 194,500 tons, compared with 184,300 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.0375 million tons, compared with 2.0558 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.13 days, compared with 8.49 days in the previous week [12] Industry News - Patria Agronegocios reported that Brazilian soybean growers had basically completed the sowing of the 2025/26 season's crops, with about 91% of the farmland sown. Patria estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season would reach 171.89 million tons, lower than the estimates of other consulting companies and the government crop agency Conab, which were between 177 - 178 million tons [13] - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported that farmers participating in the US crop subsidy program reported the areas of crops that could not be planted before December 1. The area of unplanted corn was 1.839 million acres, higher than the 1.837 million acres reported in September; the area of unplanted soybeans was 1.268 million acres, compared with 1.262 million acres in September; the area of unplanted wheat was 284,000 acres, basically the same as in September [13] - According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the export volume of Australian rapeseed in October was 62,708 tons, lower than 158,849 tons in September. In October, Japan was the largest export market, with an export volume of 57,293 tons, followed by Malaysia (1,951 tons) and Nepal (1,485 tons). The total export volume in that month was far lower than the 180,073 tons in October 2024. The EU Grain Chamber Coceral predicted that the rapeseed production in the EU and the UK in 2026 would be 21.8 million tons, the same as in 2025 [14] - The USDA's monthly crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October 2025 was 7.11 million short tons (237 million bushels), compared with 6.15 million short tons (205 million bushels) in September 2025 and 6.47 million short tons (216 million bushels) in October 2024. The US soybean oil production in October was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024. The US rapeseed crushing volume in October 2025 was 192,578 short tons, compared with 230,362 short tons in September 2025 and 218,185 short tons in October 2024 [14] - According to data from the Argentine Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food, as of the week of December 3, Argentine farmers sold 415,600 tons of soybeans in the 2024/25 season, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 40.6516 million tons. As of December 3, the cumulative registered export sales volume of soybeans in the 2024/25 season was 12.163 million tons, and that in the 2025/26 season was 1.867 million tons [15] - According to Canada's Statistics Canada, the rapeseed production in Canada in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase to 21.8 million tons. According to ABARES, the rapeseed production in Australia in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 7.2 million tons, a 10% increase from analysts' previous estimates [15] - The IBGE agency estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 47.691363 million hectares, the same as the previous month's estimate and a 3.6% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production was 165.957783 million tons, the same as the previous month's estimate and a 14.5% increase from the previous year. The estimated agricultural product production in Brazil in 2026 was 218.017021 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the 2025 estimate of 216.346394 million tons. The estimated soybean production in Brazil in 2026 was 167.554994 million tons, a 1.0% increase from the 2025 estimate of 165.957783 million tons [16] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the spot price of soybean meal in different regions, the M 1 - 5 month - spread of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the precipitation and temperature in Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the sowing progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unfulfilled contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [17][22][24]