连续降息存疑，铜价冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The main reasons were that some hawkish officials opposed continuous interest rate cuts, the probability of continued rate cuts in January was low according to the CME observation tool, the expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike might affect the global foreign exchange carry - trade market, and concerns about the bursting of the AI bubble led to asset selling in the metal market. Domestically, the central economic work conference emphasized flexible use of policies like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, promoting a new real - estate development model [2][7]. - Overall, concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble in overseas markets on Friday and opposition to rate cuts from some hawkish officials on Thursday made the probability of continuous rate cuts in early next year slim, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas concentrates persists, non - US inventories are low, and the artificial intelligence field offers broad demand prospects. It is expected that copper prices will slow their upward momentum and enter a high - level consolidation in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - LME copper price on December 12 was $11,552.50 per ton, down $112.50 (- 0.96%) from December 5. COMEX copper price was 535.84 cents per pound, down 9.56 cents (- 1.75%). SHFE copper price was 94,080 yuan per ton, up 1,300 yuan (1.40%). International copper price was 84,490 yuan per ton, up 1,100 yuan (1.32%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.95 to 8.14. LME spot premium dropped by 10.24% to $20.69 per ton, and Shanghai spot premium fell from 170 yuan to - 20 yuan [3]. - As of December 12, LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons (2.06%) to 165,900 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,765 short tons (3.15%) to 450,618 short tons, SHFE inventory increased by 484 tons (0.54%) to 89,371 tons, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.80%) to 100,300 tons. Total inventory rose by 23,099 tons (2.95%) to 806,189 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed cut interest rates for the last time this year last Thursday, with the federal funds rate range at 3.5% - 3.75%. The dot - plot shows one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. 7 officials expect no rate cut in 2026, and 4 expect two 25 - basis - point cuts. The probability of no rate cut in January next year is 75% according to the CME tool. Domestically, China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2%. The PPI index was - 2.2% year - on - year but + 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: In 2026, the production of some overseas mines is expected to be flat with 2025, and the global concentrate supply growth rate will be less than 1.5%. Codelco's premium for 2026 Chinese CIF refined copper long - term contracts reached a record high of $350 per ton. Traditional industry demand is cooling, while emerging industries like new - energy vehicles, AI data centers, and industrial robots offer broad market space [9]. Industry News - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in Peru's Condestable copper mine for $241 million. The mine has a 60 - plus - year production history, with a daily processing capacity of 8,400 tons, and is expected to produce about 27,000 tons of copper equivalent annually [11]. - Anglo American and Teck Resources' shareholders approved a $53 - billion all - stock, zero - premium merger. The combined Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca copper mines may produce over one million tons of copper annually by the early 2030s [12]. - Chile's state - owned Codelco's copper production in October fell 14.3% to 111,000 tons, while BHP's Escondida mine production rose 11.7% to 120,600 tons, and Collahuasi mine production dropped 29.3% to 35,000 tons [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, such as the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory changes, and the relationship between copper imports' profit and loss and other factors [17][19][22].