对二甲苯：需求季节性转弱，供应仍偏紧，高位震荡市，PTA：高位震荡市，MEG：计划外降负荷改善累库压力，下方短期有支撑

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The demand for PX is seasonally weakening, but the supply remains tight, and it is in a high - level volatile market; PTA is also in a high - level volatile market; for MEG, the unplanned load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below [1]. - For PX, the demand is comprehensively weakening, and one should be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the unexpected decline in polyester operation rate, and avoid chasing high prices. For PTA, although the cost - end PX supply is tight, the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space of PTA is limited. For MEG, the price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and the supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, so do not chase short positions in the 01 contract [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Dynamics - Asian xylene prices declined, with Platts assessing Asian paraxylene UNV1/China and FOB Korea at 830.67 dollars/ton and 809.67 dollars/ton respectively on December 12, both down 5 dollars/ton compared to the previous day [4]. - South Korean PX exports to the US increased significantly in early December, and more shipments are expected in the coming months, which may push up prices and tighten the regional supply. About 45,000 tons of PX cargo was loaded to the US in early December, while there was no PX export to the US in November, and the export from January to October was 154,000 tons, compared with 272,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [6]. - South Korea's GS Caltex shut down its No. 3 xylene series with an annual capacity of 550,000 tons on December 8 due to poor economic performance, and the restart date is undetermined [6]. Futures and Spot Prices | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6758 | 4674 | 3627 | 6074 | 437.6 | | Change | - 58 | 10 | 28 | - 48 | - 2.1 | | Change Rate | - 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.78% | - 0.78% | - 0.48% | | Month Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 58 | - 60 | - 84 | - 54 | - 0.4 | | Month Spread (Change) | 4 | - 2 | 24 | 16 | 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 830.67 dollars/ton | 4610 yuan/ton | 3602 yuan/ton | 548.75 dollars/ton | 62.09 dollars/barrel | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5 dollars/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | - 11 yuan/ton | - 5.5 dollars/ton | 0.1 dollars/barrel | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 281.42 dollars/ton | 185.2 yuan/ton | 256.44 yuan/ton | 123.25 yuan/ton | - 4.23 dollars/ton | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 9.25 dollars/ton | 15.86 yuan/ton | - 14.97 yuan/ton | 6.95 yuan/ton | 0.11 dollars/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1; PTA trend intensity: - 1; MEG trend intensity: 0 [6]. Views and Suggestions - PX: The demand is comprehensively weakening. The polyester industry chain profits continue to concentrate on the PX link, but the weakening demand limits the upside space. The blending - into - gasoline logic has ended. The domestic operation rate is 88.1% (- 0.1%), with a weekly output of 740,000 tons. The Asian operation rate is 79.3% (+ 0.6%). The PXN is 282 dollars/ton and continues to expand. Operate in the 6550 - 7000 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [7]. - PTA: The cost - end PX supply is tight, but the polyester is starting to accumulate inventory and incur losses, so the upside space is limited. The PTA capacity is generally in excess, and the processing fee is continuously compressed. Exit the profit of the 01 contract processing fee compression position. Operate the single - side position in the 4500 - 4800 range, exit the 5 - 9 calendar spread long position, and exit the profit of the long PX and short PTA/BZ position [8]. - MEG: The price of 3600 yuan/ton has reached the cost line of most production facilities, and some factories have shut down due to business reasons. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved. Do not chase short positions in the 01 contract. The low profit has led to a large - scale decline in the operation enthusiasm of facilities. The ethylene - based facilities, such as Sanjiang, have reduced the load, and some facilities are shut down. The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet has slightly improved [8].