LLDPE：单边下跌，基差走强有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - LLDPE shows a unilateral decline with limited strengthening of the basis. The futures market is under pressure, and the spot market follows the negative feedback of the futures market. The supply - demand situation faces pressure from high - capacity and weakening demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The L2601 contract had a closing price of 6486, a daily decline of 0.73%, a trading volume of 567446, and an open - interest change of 252592 [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The 01 - contract basis was 4 compared to - 14 the previous day, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 10 compared to - 24 the previous day [1] - Spot Price Data: In the North China region, the spot price was 6490 yuan/ton (6520 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6600 yuan/ton (6650 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6500 yuan/ton (6550 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures market is under pressure and declines. Upstream companies offered price discounts for shipments last week. Due to the weakening demand, the industry's willingness to hold goods is poor, and the execution of pre - sold orders from upstream is postponed. The spot price follows the negative feedback of the futures market, the basis is under pressure, and the destocking of warehouse receipts has stopped. The offers from the Middle East and the United States have decreased in quantity, and the prices are at a premium compared to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the United States are delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 of 2026 [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material crude oil price fluctuates, and the monomer segment is weakly stable. The supply profit of PE ethylene and ethane is compressed. The PE futures market fluctuates at a low level. The downstream agricultural film demand is weakening, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand. After the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods has weakened. Upstream companies offer price discounts at the end of the year, and the factory inventory is slightly reduced, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, and the current maintenance plan for December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high - capacity and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [3]