国债期货早报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1]. - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports bond futures, but in the short - term, due to the strong resilience of macro - economic data and policy focus on structural easing, the expectation of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, so bond futures will oscillate in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The reason is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still a long - term easing expectation [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, last Friday, bond futures oscillated and pulled back. The central economic work conference proposes to continue a moderately loose monetary policy, and the long - term monetary environment is loose, which supports bond futures. However, in the short - term, macro - economic data is resilient, the urgency of a full - scale interest rate cut is low, and the policy focuses on structural easing, so the upward momentum of bond futures is limited. Overall, bond futures are under pressure and support, and will oscillate in the short - term [5].