螺纹钢早报-20251215

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday tendency of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The rebar market shows low supply, which supports the steel price, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. With relatively favorable factors such as low valuation and policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are "fluctuation", "fluctuation", and "weak fluctuation" respectively, with an overall view of "low - level fluctuation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of anti - involution has fermented, the market sentiment has warmed up, driving the night - session steel futures price to stabilize. The spot price remained stable over the weekend. The supply of rebar has continued to shrink to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. The demand for rebar is weak, high - frequency indicators continue to run at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue the seasonal weakening trend and drag down the steel price. The low - supply pattern supports the steel price, but the demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. The relatively favorable factors are low valuation and policy expectations. The steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2].