宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025年12月15日）-20251215

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core View - The soybean and oil market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, with the core logic being the game between the current tight balance and the long - term loose expectation [5]. - The short - term trends of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil futures prices are all expected to be weakly volatile [5][7]. 3. Summary of Each Variety According to the Catalog 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, with a reference view of weakly volatile [5]. - Core Logic: The soybean market maintains a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The US soybeans are weakly volatile, and China's slow procurement cannot offset the export squeeze effect of Argentina's tariff reduction. Brazil's soybean harvest expectation dominates the long - term discount structure. The domestic near - month price support remains, but the root cause of the far - month weakness is unresolved. The supply of the 05 contract after March next year is expected to be loose, and short - term fluctuations depend on spot inventory reduction and policy regulation [5][6]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, with a reference view of weakly volatile [5][7]. - Core Logic: The oil market shows a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal, driven by short - covering and technical repair. Palm oil lags behind the rebound, affected by Malaysia's palm oil. The increase in inventory pressure in December in Malaysia still weighs on palm oil prices. Future attention should be paid to Indonesia's biodiesel policy and the procurement rhythm of major importers [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile, with a reference view of weakly volatile [5]. - Core Logic: Influenced by US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [5].