20251215申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251215

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak during the day session and rebounded at night. The overall downstream demand has reached a high level and is being steadily released. Previously, the price was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - Price and Change: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6476, 6486, and 6519 respectively, with price drops of -58, -72, and -81 and declines of -0.89%, -1.10%, and -1.23%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6129, 6168, and 6211, with drops of -48, -73, and -69 and declines of -0.78%, -1.17%, and -1.10% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes for LL in January, May, and September contracts were 168516, 367973, and 5244, and the open interests were 184121, 479677, and 8875, with changes of -42964, 28241, and 1378. For PP, the trading volumes were 285479, 285582, and 3813, and the open interests were 293184, 443312, and 20304, with changes of -58109, 42697, and 528 [2] - Spread: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -10, -33, and 43, compared to the previous values of -24, -42, and 66. For PP, the corresponding spreads were -39, -43, and 82, compared to the previous values of -64, -39, and 103 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2104 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2123 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - Spot Middle - Stream: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the three markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the previous values were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (December 12), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.44 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.28% from the previous day, with a trading range of $57.15 - $60. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.12 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.26% from the previous day, with a trading range of $60.81 - $61.86 [2] Comment and Strategy - For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable, while some prices of PetroChina were lowered by 70. For拉丝 PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable [2]