MPOB马棕11月累库超预期，棕榈油价格下跌20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil declined this week. The decline of BMD Malaysian palm oil was mainly affected by factors such as the unexpected inventory build - up in November, the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand in the first 10 days of December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. The decline of DCE palm oil was influenced by the above - mentioned factors and the decrease in import costs [8][11]. - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to rise slightly by the end of December. There is a risk that the inventory may approach or slightly exceed 3 million tons if export weakness persists or demand recovery is slower than normal [34]. - Global palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports in the 2025/26 period are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 BMD Malaysian Palm Oil - As of December 12, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,018 ringgit/ton, down 3.23% from last week. The price decline was due to factors like the unexpected inventory build - up in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the drop in international crude oil prices. In November, production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, while SPPOMA data showed a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December. Exports in November decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and exports in the first 10 days of December are expected to decline [8]. 1.2 DCE Palm Oil - This week, the main contract of DCE palm oil switched to the 2605 contract. As of December 12, the 2601 contract closed at 8,608 yuan/ton, down 1.85% from last week, and the 2605 contract closed at 8,552 yuan/ton, down 2.40% from last week. The price decline was affected by the unexpected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in November, expected supply - demand changes in December, and the decrease in import costs. Spot prices also decreased, with a slight increase in inventory and weak downstream transactions [11]. 2. Production Area Weather 2.1 Malaysian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, most areas had precipitation at or below the historical normal level, with some areas having 15 - 100mm higher or lower. From December 13 - 19, most areas are expected to have precipitation at or above the historical normal level, except for the Sabah region [14][16]. 2.2 Indonesian Production Area Weather - From December 6 - 12, precipitation in different parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan was either above or below the historical normal level. From December 13 - 19, rainfall in the main palm - oil producing areas of Indonesia is expected to be generally at or above the historical normal level [19][21]. 3. International Supply and Demand 3.1 MPOB November Report - In November, Malaysian palm oil's ending inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month to 2.835 million tons. Production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month to 1.936 million tons, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month to 1.213 million tons, and imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month to 23,000 tons [23]. 3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil December Forecast - Export Forecast: AmSpec data showed a 10.31% decrease in exports from December 1 - 10 compared to the same period last month, and ITS data showed a 15% decrease [30]. - Production Forecast: SPPOMA data indicated a 6.87% month - on - month increase in production in the first 10 days of December, with a 7.24% increase in FFB yield and a 0.07% decrease in oil extraction rate [32]. 3.3 Other Important Information - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to reach 20 - 20.5 million tons this year. Inventory is expected to rise slightly by the end of December, and there is a risk of inventory approaching or exceeding 3 million tons. Global 2025/26 palm oil production, ending stocks, and exports are all expected to be lower than last month's estimates [34]. 4. Domestic Supply and Demand 4.1 Import Profit - This week, the import profit of palm oil for January - March 2026 shipments showed a wider negative spread [35]. 4.2 Palm Oil Transactions - This week, palm oil transactions increased. As of December 12, the weekly transaction volume was 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons or 129% from last week [38]. 4.3 Palm Oil Inventory - As of December 5, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 683,700 tons, a 4.62% increase from last week and a 32.32% increase from the same period last year [40][41]. 5. Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Spreads of Oils 5.1 Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread - Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread: The report presents the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in different regions against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil [44][48]. - Variety Spread and POGO Spread: The report shows the international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic soybean - palm oil spread, and domestic rapeseed - palm oil spread [50][54]. 5.2 Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Positions - The report provides the quantity of DCE palm oil warehouse receipts and the positions of the 05 contract [56]. 5.3 FOB Quotations - The report shows the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [59].