山金期货黑色板块日报-20251215

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For steel products, in the off - season of consumption, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, and the inventory pressure remains high. The adjustment of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system still exert some pressure on the market. For iron ore, the decrease in steel mill production suppresses raw material prices, the high global shipment volume and rising port inventories suppress futures prices, while the statements in the Central Economic Work Conference may boost industrial product prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand: Last week, the production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the overall inventory of the five major varieties continued to decline. However, the inventory of hot - rolled coil is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the de - stocking pressure of threaded steel is relatively small. This week, the apparent demand has declined overall, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have also shown signs of weakening, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - Technical analysis: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract is still in a volatile trend, opening lower and moving higher overnight, with significant resistance above [2] - Operation suggestion: Long positions can be held with a light position. If the market continues to decline and forms a new downward trend, positions can be appropriately reduced or closed. Shorting is not recommended at the current position [2] - Data summary: The closing price of the threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures contracts, spot prices, basis, spreads, and other data have changed to varying degrees. The production of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces, daily average molten iron output, and the proportion of profitable steel mills have all decreased. The production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil has decreased, and the inventory of the five major varieties has generally declined, but the inventory of hot - rolled coil in steel mills has increased [3] 2. Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, molten iron production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival replenishment demand will also come later than in previous years [5] - Supply: Global shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventories suppresses futures prices. The building steel production license system and the inclusion of some steel products in export license management still put pressure on the spot market [5] - Technical analysis: The 05 contract has not yet escaped the wide - range volatile trend at a relatively high level [5] - Operation suggestion: Long positions can be held with a light position for medium - term trading. Adopt a volatile trading strategy and avoid chasing up or selling down [5] - Data summary: The prices of iron ore spot and futures contracts, basis, spreads, overseas shipments, shipping freight, exchange rates, port inventories, and other data have all changed to varying degrees [5] 3. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will adjust the "Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Management" and include some steel products in the catalogue, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [7] - The 2025 First Automotive Steel Supply - Demand Symposium was held in Wuxi, Jiangsu Province. The China Iron and Steel Association called on steel enterprises to respond to the national call against "involution - style" vicious competition [7] - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 and 45 ports has increased, and the daily average port clearance volume has changed to varying degrees [7] - Mysteel's research shows that the blast furnace operating rate, iron - making capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 steel mills have all decreased, and the daily average molten iron output has also decreased [8] - On December 12, mainstream steel mills in Shandong and Hebei markets lowered the purchase price of coke [9] - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, including steel products in export license management is an important measure to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry [9] - According to Steel Silver E - commerce data, the total urban inventory and construction steel inventory have decreased this week [9]