Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Weak Expectations for US Soybean Export Demand, Decline in CBOT Soybean Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean price declined due to weak US soybean export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The US soybean export demand is expected to remain weak, while the US soybean crushing outlook is positive. The USDA December report maintained the forecast for the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels [9]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of December 12, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 2.62% from the previous week. The decline was due to weak export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The USDA December report did not adjust the 25/26 US soybean production forecast, and the export demand forecast remained unchanged. The US soybean crushing expectation is still at a high level [9]. 2. Soybean Meal - External Market: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $302.0 per short - ton, down 1.76% from the previous week, affected by the weakening of CBOT soybean prices and sufficient supply expectations [13]. - Domestic Market: As of December 12, the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2770 yuan per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week, driven by a decline in soybean import costs and potential increases in soybean supply from state - reserve auctions. However, the slow pace of domestic US soybean purchases may support the price. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream soybean meal trading increased, and the spot basis strengthened [17]. 3. Soybean Oil - External Market: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 50.07 cents per pound, down 3.15% from the previous week, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices and related competing vegetable oil prices [21]. - Domestic Market: The DCE soybean oil main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the DCE soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8240 yuan per ton, down 0.31% from the previous week, and the 2605 contract closed at 7994 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The decline was due to a drop in soybean import costs and high domestic oil mill soybean oil inventories. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills were at a high level, downstream trading demand was average, and the soybean oil spot basis remained volatile [24]. II. Growing Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Growing Area Weather - Past Week (12.5 - 12.12): Rainfall in Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul was above normal, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. Temperatures in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area and parts of Paraná were below normal, and the rest of the areas had normal temperatures [26]. - Next Week (12.14 - 12.21): Rainfall in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area is expected to be above normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal rainfall. Temperatures in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná are expected to be below normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal temperatures [27]. 2. Argentine Soybean Growing Area Weather - Past Week (12.5 - 12.12): Rainfall in parts of Córdoba and Santa Fe was above normal, parts of Buenos Aires had less rainfall, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. The overall temperature in the main soybean - growing area was normal [33]. - Next Week (12.14 - 12.21): Rainfall and temperature in the main soybean - growing area are expected to be normal [35]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - USDA Monthly Report - US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The USDA December report made minor adjustments to the 24/25 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet, keeping the 24/25 ending stocks forecast at 316 million bushels. The 25/26 balance sheet was unchanged, with the ending stocks forecast at 290 million bushels, in line with the November report and lower than the market expectation of 309 million bushels [43]. - Crushing: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Illinois, the prices of downstream soybean oil and soybean meal all declined. The US soybean crushing volume in October was 7.11 million short - tons, up 9.86% year - on - year. As of October 2025, the cumulative crushing volume in the 25/26 season was 13.26 million short - tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.87%. The US crude soybean oil inventory was 1.353 billion pounds, up 20.25% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory was 346,300 short - tons, up 14.14% year - on - year [44][48]. - Export Inspection & Export Sales: The US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week and met expectations, with the cumulative year - on - year decline slightly narrowing. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,018,127 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume so far in this crop year was 12,899,667 tons, a 45.24% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative year - on - year decline in 25/26 US soybean export sales continued to widen. As of the week of November 13, 25/26 cumulative export sales (including unshipped) were 18.4025 million tons, a 41.09% year - on - year decrease [52][53]. - US Soybean Crushing Profit: As of December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $64.29 per ton, down from $66.54 on December 5 [57]. - D4 RINs Price: As of December 12, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 104 cents, down 3.5 cents from December 5 [58]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - USDA Monthly Report - Brazilian Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The USDA December report maintained the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast at 175 million tons, in line with market expectations. It also raised the 25/26 Brazilian soybean import forecast by 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons, and the ending stocks forecast was raised to 3.651 million tons [61]. - Soybean Production Forecast: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production, with the USDA forecasting 175 million tons [64]. - Soybean Sowing: As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% according to CONAB, 94% according to AgRural. The sowing progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 76% as of December 11, and the sowing in Paraná was 100% complete as of December 9, with a good - rate of 89% [65]. - Export Sales: Anec raised the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in December to 3.33 million tons. As of the first week of December 2025, Brazil had exported 970,900 tons of soybeans that week, and the cumulative export volume was 105.78 million tons, an 8.53% year - on - year increase. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 95.17%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 28.56% [74]. - Soybean Premium: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [77]. - Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit: As of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit was $70.99 per ton, down from $77.68 on December 5 [79]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - USDA Monthly Report - Argentine Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The USDA December report raised the 24/25 Argentine soybean crushing forecast by 100,000 tons to 4.322 million tons, and the 24/25 ending stocks forecast was lowered to 2.309 million tons. For 25/26, the production forecast was maintained at 4.85 million tons, and the ending stocks forecast was lowered by 100,000 tons to 2.284 million tons [83]. - Soybean Sowing: As of the week of December 11, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 58% according to SAGyP and 58.6% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The good - rate of sown soybeans was 58%, and the proportion of soil in good moisture condition in the main growing areas was 91% [84]. - Farmer Sales: As of the week of December 3, 2025, Argentine farmers' 24/25 soybean export sales increased week - on - week. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 84.7%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.4% [88][90]. - Argentine Soybean Crushing Profit: As of December 12, 2025, the Argentine soybean crushing profit was $2.18 per ton, up from $1.57 on December 5 [93]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Chinese Imported Soybean Procurement Progress: The weekly procurement progress of Chinese imported soybeans as of December 9, 2025, was provided by McDonald Pelz [95]. - Port and Oil - Mill Soybean Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 206,000 tons, and the oil - mill soybean inventory in the 49th week was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% week - on - week decrease [97]. - Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing: In the 49th week, the domestic full - sample oil - mill soybean arrival was about 1.898 million tons. In the 50th week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0375 million tons, and the operating rate was 56.05% [100]. - Soybean Oil Trading Volume: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly trading volume of soybean oil was 82,600 tons, down from 136,900 tons in the previous week [102]. - Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption: In the 50th week, the soybean oil production of 125 major domestic oil mills was 376,900 tons, and the apparent consumption in the 49th week was 396,100 tons, both showing a decline [105]. - Soybean Oil Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.163 million tons, a 1.34% week - on - week decrease and an 18.40% year - on - year increase [108]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.6096 million tons, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease, and the apparent consumption as of the week of December 5 was 1.6654 million tons, a 1.42% week - on - week decrease [110]. - Oil - Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed - Mill Physical Inventory Days: As of December 5, 2025, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% week - on - week decrease. As of December 12, the feed - mill physical inventory days were 9.13 days, a 0.64 - day week - on - week increase [113]. - Soybean Meal Trading and Pick - up: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal trading volume was 912,100 tons, a 30.04% week - on - week increase, and the pick - up volume was 972,640 tons, a 5.55% week - on - week increase [116]. - Downstream Demand: The losses in self - breeding and self - raising pig farming and purchased - piglet farming slightly improved. As of December 3, the national pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio both declined [118][120]. - Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity: As of December 12, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots [122]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Cross - Commodity Spread - Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread: Relevant data on the basis of Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, and Tianjin first - grade soybean oil against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil are presented [126][138]. - Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Tianjin against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal are provided [136][141]. - Cross - Commodity Spread: Information on the 05 spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the 05 ratio of soybean oil/soybean meal, corn/soybean meal is given [143][145]. 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes for soybean oil, US soybean meal, Argentine soybean meal, and Brazilian soybean meal FOB are presented [147][148][154]. 3. CFTC Positioning - Data on the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds are provided [152][155].
国富豆系研究周报：美豆出口需求预期仍偏弱，CBOT大豆价格下跌-20251215
Guo Fu Qi Huo·2025-12-15 02:32