中国成品油周报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the national refinery operating rate increased slightly, with the main refineries' operating rate rising and the independent refineries' operating rate falling. Gasoline production decreased, while diesel production showed a mixed trend. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio increased. Market sentiment was cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm for gasoline and improved sales of diesel due to low - price support. Both gasoline and diesel commercial inventories increased. Next week, overall production is expected to decline slightly, demand will be weak, and there will be a supply - demand imbalance, with possible price differentiation and increased inventory pressure [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis 3.1.1 Market Overview - Supply: The national refinery operating rate was 70.8% this week, up 0.2% from the previous week. Main refineries' operating rate increased slightly as Guangzhou Petrochemical's atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit resumed operation after maintenance. Independent refineries' operating rate decreased slightly due to the new coking unit maintenance at Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical. Gasoline production from both main and independent refineries decreased, while diesel production from main refineries increased and that from independent refineries decreased. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio rose by 0.02 to 1.48 [6]. - Demand: Market sentiment was cautious. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream gasoline vehicle orders was low, while diesel orders from ships and vehicles increased due to low - price support, and the sales - to - production ratio increased. Neither gasoline nor diesel achieved a sales - production balance [6]. - Inventory: Commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 280,000 tons (+2.7%) from the previous week; diesel inventory was 12.39 million tons, up 250,000 tons (+1.8%). Independent refinery inventories increased due to high - level operation after the issuance of crude oil quotas and low market purchasing enthusiasm. Social gasoline inventory increased as some resources were stored, while diesel inventory decreased as some areas still faced a shortage of main refinery resources [6]. 3.1.2 Future Outlook - Supply: Next week, the operating rate of main refineries is expected to remain stable, while independent refineries may reduce their load slightly due to increased sales pressure. Overall, gasoline and diesel production is expected to decline slightly [7]. - Demand: Demand will be weak. The inventory - building sentiment in the gasoline market will cool down, but prices will be relatively stable due to cost support. Diesel demand will continue to weaken due to the significant cooling and snowfall in the north, and the market's bearish expectation will increase. Price promotions will have limited impact on sales [7]. - Inventory: Shandong independent refineries' gasoline inventory may increase slightly as some ship orders are concentrated for delivery, but terminal vehicle orders are weak. Diesel inventory pressure will increase as production is expected to increase while demand decreases seasonally [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis and Data Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Gasoline market price: On December 11, 2025, the national average gasoline price was 7,381 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day, up 39 yuan from the previous week, up 39 yuan from the previous month, and down 631 yuan from the previous year. Prices in different regions showed different trends [14]. - Diesel market price: On December 11, 2025, the national average diesel price was 6,416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous day, down 100 yuan from the previous week, down 164 yuan from the previous month, and down 649 yuan from the previous year. Prices in different regions also showed different trends [14]. 3.2.2 Profit - Main refineries' refining profit: This cycle, the main refineries' refining profit was 645.47 yuan/ton, up 8.82% from the previous week. The calculated crude oil cost was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan from the previous week. The average price of main refined products decreased by 0.2%, but the cost decrease was greater, resulting in a profit increase [19]. - Shandong independent refineries' refining profit: In the week of December 11, 2025, the average comprehensive profit of Shandong independent refineries processing imported crude oil was 442.61 yuan/ton, down 2.66% from the previous week and up 0.84% from the previous year. The average crude oil cost was 2,997 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan, and the comprehensive income was 4,982 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The cost decrease was less than the income decrease, so the refining profit decreased [19]. 3.2.3 Supply - Operating rate: This week, the national refinery operating rate was 70.8%, up 0.2% from the previous week. The main refineries' operating rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 75.1%, and the independent refineries' operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 64.3%. Shandong independent refineries' average weekly operating rate was 55.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week [35]. - Maintenance plan: As of December 12, 2025, the total maintenance capacity was 72.4 million tons/year. Guangzhou Petrochemical's maintenance was expected to end, and Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical had a new coking unit under maintenance [39]. - Production: This week, gasoline production from both main and independent refineries decreased, while diesel production from main refineries increased and that from independent refineries decreased. The diesel - to - gasoline ratio increased by 0.02 to 1.48. Main refineries produced 1.92 million tons of gasoline, down 20,000 tons (-1.1%) from the previous week, and 2.18 million tons of diesel, up 10,000 tons (+0.3%). Shandong independent refineries' gasoline and diesel production both decreased, with gasoline production at 480,000 tons, down 2.4%, and diesel production at 1.06 million tons, up 0.3% [41][45]. 3.2.4 Sales - This week, the average weekly sales - to - production ratio of Shandong refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased but did not reach the sales - production balance. The gasoline sales - to - production ratio increased by 2 percentage points to 98%, and the diesel sales - to - production ratio increased slightly to 95%. Market sentiment was cautious, with low purchasing enthusiasm for gasoline from downstream vehicle orders, while diesel orders from ships and vehicles increased due to low - price support, and the sales - to - production ratio increased [53]. 3.2.5 Demand - Gasoline demand: The gasoline consumption index, congestion index in 15 Chinese cities, flight scheduling volume, and service industry PMI are used to measure gasoline demand, but specific analysis is not provided in the report [63][64][65][67]. - Diesel demand: The diesel consumption index, manufacturing PMI, cement and asphalt出库量, steel consumption, and express delivery volume are used to measure diesel demand, but specific analysis is not provided in the report [74]. 3.2.6 Inventory - This week, commercial inventories of both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 280,000 tons (+2.7%) from the previous week; diesel inventory was 12.39 million tons, up 250,000 tons (+1.8%). Independent refinery inventories increased due to high - level operation after the issuance of crude oil quotas and low market purchasing enthusiasm. Social gasoline inventory increased as some resources were stored, while diesel inventory decreased as some areas still faced a shortage of main refinery resources. Next week, Shandong independent refineries' gasoline inventory is expected to increase slightly, and diesel inventory is expected to increase due to expected production increase and seasonal demand decline [76][80].