20251215申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251215

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices closed down by over 2% during the weekend night session. The concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still maintained high growth. Copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mine supply disturbances. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices closed down by over 1% during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continued to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention. Suggestions include monitoring the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Weekend night - session price down over 2%, concentrate supply tight, smelting output with high growth, downstream demand mixed, supply - demand expected to be in deficit [2]. - Zinc: Weekend night - session price down over 1%, concentrate supply temporarily tight, smelting output growing, downstream demand mixed, overall supply - demand difference not obvious [2]. - Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, and Tin: Only price, basis, LME - related prices, inventory and inventory change data are provided without specific market analysis [2]. Price and Inventory Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,020 | - 30 | 11,553 | 20.69 | 165,850 | 875 | | Aluminum | 21,875 | - 60 | 2,875 | - 32.55 | 518,750 | - 2,050 | | Zinc | 22,970 | 45 | 3,139 | 90.60 | 60,350 | 550 | | Nickel | 115,400 | - 3,490 | 14,620 | - 186.45 | 252,852 | - 240 | | Lead | 17,170 | - 75 | 1,966 | - 49.62 | 235,475 | - 75 | | Tin | 318,710 | 320 | 41,125 | 17.00 | 3,695 | 40 | [2]