玻璃：年底需求缺失近月弱势运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry in this report is "Weak Operation" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week, and the spot price suppressed the futures market again. With high inventory at the end of the year and great pressure on capital repayment, the willingness of middle - stream traders to purchase is low. The production capacity is stable at the end of the year, and the demand is weak, so the near - month contracts face great pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures dropped sharply last week. High - end inventory, capital repayment pressure, and weak demand led to low purchasing willingness of middle - stream traders. A car glass production line was restarted last week, and the daily melting volume slightly increased. The market in the Shahe area is weak, and the prices in Hubei may decline. The prices in East and South China also decreased. The supply increase expectation of soda ash is fermenting, and the demand from the float glass and photovoltaic industries is saturated. In the short term, there is no news of production line shutdown, and the end - of - year production capacity is stable. The demand is weak, and the near - month contracts are under great pressure. Technically, the short - side force dominates [2] - Operation Strategy: The market is expected to operate weakly [2][3] 02. Market Review: Futures Drop Significantly - Spot Prices: As of December 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,040 yuan/ton (- 30) in North China, 1,080 yuan/ton (- 30) in Central China, and 1,200 yuan/ton (- 10) in East China. The prices of 5mm float glass from some manufacturers also decreased, such as a - 28 yuan/ton change for Shahe Anquan and a - 44 yuan/ton change for Shahe Great Wall [9][10] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 935 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton [10] 03. Market Review: Basis Widens Near Delivery - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of December 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,093 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 935 yuan/ton. The price difference was 158 yuan/ton (+ 15) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 125 yuan/ton (+ 19) [15] - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+ 40) [15] 04. Profit: Gross Profit Turns Negative - Natural Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,572 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 372 yuan/ton (+ 9) [19] - Coal - Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,181 yuan/ton (- 10), and the gross profit is - 141 yuan/ton (- 20) [19] - Petroleum Coke Production Process: The cost is 1,086 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 6 yuan/ton (- 29) [19] - Fuel Prices: On December 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 612 yuan/ton [19] 05. Supply: Slightly Decreases - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (- 1,100), and there were 219 production lines in operation. The second - line of Anhui Wuhu Xinyi Electronics with a capacity of 500T/D was restarted last week [21] 06. Inventory: Remains High and Stable - As of December 12, the inventory of 80 glass samples across the country: North China had 10.042 million weight boxes (- 129,000), Central China had 6.835 million weight boxes (+ 125,000), East China had 12.114 million weight boxes (- 139,000), South China had 8.14 million weight boxes (- 537,000), Southwest had 11.997 million weight boxes (- 603,000), the factory warehouse in Shahe had 3.18 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the factory warehouse in Hubei had 4.61 million weight boxes (+ 160,000). The total production - factory inventory was 58.227 million weight boxes (- 1.215 million) [25][28] 07. Deep - Processing:开工率下降 - Production and Sales Ratio: On December 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 95% (- 11%) [29] - LOW - E Glass: On December 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.3% (- 1.1%) [29] - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of December, the order days for glass deep - processing were 10.1 days (+ 0.2) [29] 08. Demand: New - Energy Vehicle Production Reaches a New High - Automobiles: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles [38] - New - Energy Vehicles: In November, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] 09. Demand: Real - Estate Data Declines Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In October, China's real - estate completion area was 37.3212 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; the new construction area was 36.6207 million m² (- 29%); the construction area was 43.5928 million m² (- 7%); and the commercial housing sales area was 61.47 million m² (- 20%). The real - estate development investment in October was 585.699 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [45] - Transaction Area: From December 6 to December 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.22 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 22% [45] 10. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Basis Strengthens - Spot Prices: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China [47] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,093 yuan/ton (- 44) [52] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 207 yuan/ton (+ 44) [51] 11. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Cost Decreases - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53] - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,405 yuan/ton (+ 103), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [54] - Production Costs: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton (- 22), and the gross profit was - 68 yuan/ton (+ 1); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,781 yuan/ton (- 61), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53][55] 12. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Inventory Increases - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 5,763 (- 678) [66] - Inventory: As of December 12, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4943 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons), including 790,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 20,300 tons) and 703,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons) [63][66] - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 735,400 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,500 tons), including 397,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons) and 337,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 15,200 tons). The loss volume was 135,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 32,200 tons) [66] 13. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand is Moderate - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 418,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,400 tons [70] - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91% [76] - Glass Factory Inventory: In November, the inventory days of soda ash in sample float glass factories was 24.1 days [69]