铜铝周报：有色冲高回落，关注宏观变化-20251215

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].