新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-15）-20251215

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Weakening [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [4] - CSI 300: Oscillating [4] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Consolidating [4] - Gold: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Silver: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [7] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [8] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [8] - Soybean oil: Trading in a range [8] - Palm oil: Trading in a range [8] - Rapeseed oil: Trading in a range [8] - Soybean meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating weakly [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating weakly [10] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating [10] - Live pigs: Weakening [10] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [12] - PX: Widely oscillating [12] - PTA: Oscillating [12] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Report's Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market features ample supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current molten iron production is declining month-on-month, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit management system for steel exports will limit exports and negatively impact raw materials. It is advisable to look for opportunities to sell on rebounds [2]. - The coal - coking market was affected by the lack of incremental policy information in the Central Economic Work Conference. The permit management system for steel exports has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives. However, there is still downstream restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and some participants are worried about policy reversals, which supports coal and coke prices [2]. - The rebar market has low downstream demand, and winter restocking has not yet started. It remains in an oscillating state. The core lies in steel demand, and domestic demand remains weak. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by over 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively [2]. - The glass market has seen a recent weakening in prices. Processing orders are in a downturn, and demand is insufficient. Although inventory has been decreasing, it is still higher than the same period last year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on the progress of cold repairs [2]. - In the financial market, the performance of major Chinese economic indicators is better than expected. In 2026, policies will be introduced to promote the synchronous growth of residents' income and the economy, and the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market's bullish sentiment is rising, and the medium - term trend remains positive [4]. - The gold market's pricing mechanism is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. The US debt problem has damaged the US dollar's credit, and gold's de - fiat currency attribute has become prominent. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support for gold prices, while the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [7]. - The log market has seen an increase in port shipments, but the demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure may gradually ease, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - The pulp market's spot price has weakened. Although cost support has increased, the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. The price may return to a supply - demand - driven oscillating state after the digestion of positive news [8]. - The oil and fat market has uncertainties in demand due to factors such as the US biodiesel policy and weak exports. Although there is support from raw material costs and seasonal palm oil production cuts, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - The soybean meal market has a relatively loose global supply. The US soybean has no export advantage, and the market expects a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply is abundant, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The live - pig market has a stable overall supply, but the demand growth is limited. The average weekly price is expected to continue to decline [10]. - The rubber market has supply disruptions in some regions due to weather. The demand side is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The PX market has a high supply, but the downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating. The PTA market's cost is unstable, and the short - term supply - demand has improved, but it will deteriorate seasonally. The MEG market has a long - term inventory build - up pressure, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is ample, demand is low, and port inventories are rising. In 2026, new global mine production will increase significantly, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of a permit system for steel exports is negative for raw materials. Look for selling opportunities on rebounds [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by policy information and the steel export policy, the market has shifted from supply - side expectations to demand - side concerns. However, downstream restocking demand and policy concerns support prices [2]. - Rebar: Downstream demand is low, and winter restocking has not started. It oscillates, and the core lies in steel demand. Steel prices depend on production cuts and policy implementation [2]. - Glass: Prices are weakening, processing orders are few, demand is insufficient. Although inventory is decreasing, it is higher than last year. Cold - repair progress determines price trends [2]. - Soda ash: Similar to the glass market, it is in a weak state [2]. Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw gains in major stock indices. The financial data in November showed good performance, and the central economic work meeting released positive signals. The market's bullish sentiment is rising [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is flat, and the market is slightly rebounding. The central bank conducts reverse - repurchase operations, and the market is affected by monetary policy [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, with central bank gold purchases becoming crucial. The US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and Chinese central bank's gold - buying support prices. The Fed's interest - rate policy is a short - term factor [7]. - Silver: Similar to gold, it oscillates with an upward bias [7]. Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and出库量 are increasing, but demand improvement's sustainability is uncertain. Supply pressure may ease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [7]. - Pulp: Spot prices have weakened, cost support has increased, but paper industry demand is weak. The price may return to an oscillating state [8]. - Offset paper: The spot price is stable, supply changes little, and demand is weak. It is expected to weakly oscillate [8]. Oilseeds and Oils - Soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil: There are uncertainties in demand due to policies and exports. Although there is cost support, the overall market is expected to trade in a range [8]. - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal: Global supply is loose, the US soybean has no export advantage, and South American harvest expectations are high. The domestic supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The overall supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and the average weekly price is expected to decline [10]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather, demand is gradually recovering, but inventory is accumulating seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. Polyester - PX: Supply is high, downstream polyester load has rebounded, and the price is widely oscillating [12]. - PTA: Cost is unstable, short - term supply - demand has improved but will deteriorate seasonally. The price follows the cost [12]. - MEG: Long - term inventory build - up pressure exists, and the price is weakly oscillating [12]. - PR: The market may stop falling and stabilize [12]. - PF: The price may oscillate and consolidate [12].