Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple positive factors such as further improvement of the system, renewed expansion of funds, and continuous empowerment of industries, the long - term and steady - growth pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, fund protection, and industry drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flow and risk appetite again, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady - growth trend. With the gradual implementation of the tone of important meetings in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4539.60, 4522.80, 4496.60, and 4453.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively. The price increases were 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60 respectively, and the trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00 respectively. The open interest was 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00 respectively, with an increase of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2969.80, 2962.60, 2961.80, and 2948.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively. The price increases were 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00 respectively. The open interest was 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00 respectively, with a change of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7074.40, 7015.80, 6894.00, and 6691.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7174.00, 7115.00, 6998.80, and 6795.40 respectively. The price increases were 90.20, 92.60, 96.20, and 99.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 82739.00, 13122.00, 44665.00, and 11914.00 respectively. The open interest was 99631.00, 26329.00, 100787.00, and 37925.00 respectively, with an increase of 51.00, 4850.00, 9352.00, and 2326.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7304.60, 7222.80, 7063.00, and 6820.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively. The price increases were 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80 respectively, and the trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00 respectively. The open interest was 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00 respectively, with a change of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 18.40, - 6.80, - 59.00, and - 75.60 respectively, and the previous values were - 16.80, - 7.20, - 58.60, and - 81.80 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4580.95, 2994.64, 7169.79, and 7370.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4552.18, 2977.03, 7082.89, and 7312.00 respectively. The price increases were 0.63, 0.59, 1.23, and 0.81 respectively [1] - Industry Indexes: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of - 0.52%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 0.94%, 0.89%, and 0.58% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 0.66%, 0.29%, 0.35%, and 0.93% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities industries had increases of 0.55% and 0.53% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index were - 6.95, - 25.35, - 49.95, and - 91.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 12.58, - 29.38, - 55.58, and - 98.38 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the Shanghai 50 index were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.23, - 14.43, - 15.23, and - 29.03 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 8.49, - 67.09, - 188.89, and - 391.89 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 9.14, - 84.74, - 251.14, and - 490.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.40, - 89.20, - 249.00, and - 491.40 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.35, 13258.33, 8020.01, and 3194.36 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3873.32, 13147.39, 7947.12, and 3163.67 respectively. The price increases were 0.41%, 0.84%, 0.92%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25976.79, 50148.82, 6827.41, and 24186.49 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25530.51, 50602.80, 6901.00, and 24294.61 respectively. The price increases were 1.75%, - 0.90%, - 1.07%, and - 0.45% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice proposing 11 specific measures in three aspects: deepening cooperation between the business and financial systems, increasing financial support for key consumption areas, and expanding government - policy - bank - enterprise docking cooperation [2] - Multiple departments are deploying to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and more incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment recovery, and cultivate new growth drivers [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will hold important economic and trade activities in 2026 [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China invested over 700 billion yuan in high - standard farmland construction, supporting the construction and renovation of 460 million mu of high - standard farmland [2] 6. Industry Information - China's artificial intelligence industry has been accelerating development in 2025, with the core industry scale expected to exceed one trillion yuan [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of China's machinery industry added value was 7.1%, and the growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was 8.7% [2] - By 2030, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. By 2060, the proportions of fossil energy, hydropower and nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaics will be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30% respectively [2] - As the copper futures price exceeded $10,000 per ton this year, China is accelerating the promotion of "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard formulation [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes declined, while the stock indexes in the previous trading session regained their upward momentum. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains, and the commercial and retail sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan [2] - On December 11, the margin trading balance decreased by 6.26 billion yuan to 2490.146 billion yuan [2]
申万期货品种策略日报：股指-20251215
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-12-15 02:53