铁矿石：宏观驱动减弱，产业政策利空

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Macro drivers have been realized, and industrial policies are negative for iron ore demand. The decline in domestic iron ore demand has exceeded expectations, and molten iron is expected to continue to decline. The supply side is generally stable, and port inventories are expected to accumulate. The short - term market focus will shift to the weak reality, with a short - term trend of weak oscillation [2][3]. - The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore (05) will operate in the range of 750 - 790 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market (FE01) price of approximately 101.5 - 103.5 US dollars/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Impact - In 2026, the implementation of export license management for some steel products will come into effect on January 1st. This measure aims to control the chaos in the steel export market, promote the industrial upgrading of the domestic steel industry, and guide the export of high - value - added products. Export controls will reduce domestic iron ore demand and suppress iron ore prices [3]. Supply - The weekly shipment of foreign iron ore has increased slightly. Shipments from Australia have increased slightly, those from Brazil have decreased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream mines have increased substantially. Considering seasonal patterns and the shipment targets of major mines this year, major mines may increase shipments at the end of the year. In the short term, the arrival volume shows a downward trend [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has continued to decline at an accelerating pace, with the decline exceeding expectations. The combined effects of environmental protection restrictions and annual maintenance are the main reasons. The average daily molten iron production this period is 229.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.10 million tons, the largest single - week decline since the peak in the second half of the year, and the absolute level is lower than the same period last year. Blast furnace maintenance has occurred in multiple regions, and blast furnace restarts have taken place in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong [3]. Inventory - Steel mills' imported iron ore inventories remain at a low level, with a week - on - week decline and at a low level compared to the same period. Steel mills' restocking actions are weak. Port inventories are continuously accumulating due to the relatively high arrival volume and the decline in the high - level port clearance volume. It is expected that port inventories will continue to accumulate in December [3]. 4. Strategy - Adopt interval operation and covered call options [4].