EB周报：产业链存量博弈苯乙烯强于纯苯-20251215

Report Title - [EB Weekly Strategy 20251214] Stock Game in the Industrial Chain, Styrene Stronger than Pure Benzene [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the contract eb2602, wait for short - selling opportunities for styrene, but the upside space may also be large. In 2026, the pressure on pure benzene is high. In terms of production, the output of petroleum benzene will increase significantly after the commissioning of cracking units in the second half of the year and the resumption of factory operations after maintenance. The import volume will also be relatively high, with an expected annual import increase of nearly 20%. The demand for pure benzene is mainly from styrene, but the overall demand growth is slow, and the inventory pressure is large. The production pressure of styrene is concentrated in Q4 2025, with new capacity coming on - stream. The profit repair of styrene is under pressure, and the processing fee is in the range of [200, 850] yuan/ton [3]. - The long - term logic is that the cost side of pure benzene is in a large - scale production cycle with high load and high imports. The overall supply - demand pressure of pure benzene is large, and the profit is under pressure in the medium - long term. For styrene, the supply pressure remains high, and the demand side is weak, so the short - term suggestion is to wait and see, and then choose to short after the absolute price rebounds [10][11]. Summary According to the Directory Upstream Overview - Toluene and Pure Benzene Spreads - Toluene - naphtha spreads in America, Europe, and Asia are presented in graphs from 2018 - 2025, with daily update frequencies [17][19][21]. - Benzene - toluene spreads in America, Europe, and Asia are also presented in graphs from 2018 - 2025, with daily update frequencies [23][26][28]. - Styrene spot price in East China and pure benzene profit in China are shown in graphs from 2018 - 2025 [30][32]. Upstream Overview - Pure Benzene Supply and Demand - Supply: The output of petroleum benzene this cycle is 43.76 tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons from last week, with a growth rate of - 0.23%, and the capacity utilization rate is 75.11%, a decrease of 0.17% from last week. The domestic benzene hydrogenation unit operating rate is 52.94%, a decrease of 2.14% from last week, and the weekly output is 6.95 tons, a decrease of 0.28 tons from last week [35]. - US - Asia Spread: The price of pure benzene in South Korea has fallen this week, while the price in the US is stable. The arbitrage window between South Korea and the US is partially open, and about 2 tons of pure benzene from South Korea have been sold to the US under the shipping contract. The expected import volume in December is about 467 tons/month, and about 45 tons in January [36]. Pure Benzene Downstream Profit and Load - Profit: The comprehensive profit of pure benzene downstream has been compressed this cycle. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been compressed, currently at about - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of caprolactam has been repaired, while the profits of phenol, adipic acid, and aniline are relatively stable or slightly compressed. Aniline has relatively good profit, while adipic acid, caprolactam, and phenol have poor profits [67]. - Load: The operating rates of major downstream products such as styrene, adipic acid, phenol, aniline, and caprolactam have decreased this week. Next period, the operating rates of caprolactam and styrene are expected to increase, while those of phenol and aniline are expected to decrease, and the comprehensive operating rate of downstream products will decrease [68]. Styrene Supply and Demand Operation - Supply - Side Production Rhythm: As of November 2025, the newly - added capacity in the current year is 237 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. It is estimated that the newly - added capacity in 2025 will be 257 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11.78%, and 67 tons in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 3% [95]. - Demand - Side Production Rhythm: As of November 2025, the total newly - added capacity of the three major downstream products is 190.5 tons. It is estimated that the total downstream production growth rate this year will be about 11.71%, and about 38% in 2026 [96]. - Cost Curve: Styrene has all - oil - based production capacity, divided into integrated (about 10%) and non - integrated (about 30%). Non - integrated plants are more sensitive to profit [97]. - Profit and Load: The valuation of styrene has been compressed recently, with non - integrated profit at about - 82 yuan/ton. This week (20251205 - 20251211), the output of Chinese styrene plants is 33.88 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 88.11%, a decrease of 0.74% from the previous period [98][99]. - US - Dollar Spread and Import - Export: The European styrene market has fallen this week, the Asian market has been slightly stronger, and the US Gulf market has fallen. The international oil price is expected to rise slightly next week. The price difference between China and Europe and the US has narrowed, and the arbitrage window is closed. China's styrene exports are mainly to nearby regions [100]. EPS, PS, ABS Profit, Load, and Inventory - EPS: The output this week (20251205 - 1211) is about 8.91 tons, a decrease of 0.43 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 3.77%, a decrease of 2.59% from last week [209]. - PS: The output from December 5 - 11, 2025, is 9.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 58.3%, a decrease of 0.7% from last week [209]. - ABS: The output this week (20251204 - 20251211) is 15 tons, an increase of 0.47 tons from last week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.53%, an increase of 2.23% from last week [209]. Three - Major Downstream Comprehensive Operation - The downstream profit has been slightly compressed, and the load has been relatively stable. The production of ABS has increased, while the production of EPS and PS has decreased [208][209].