中辉有色观点-20251215

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, short - term high - level decline, long - term short - allocation [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level volatility [1] Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic allocation value of precious metals such as gold and silver remains unchanged, benefiting from factors like global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. For base metals, the market conditions vary. Copper is favored in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand, while zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel face different degrees of pressure in the short - to - medium term. Industrial silicon may rebound, polysilicon runs strongly, and lithium carbonate shows high - level volatility [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Silver funds took profits and left the market, causing a significant decline. The Fed's liquidity release led to an emotional release for gold [2] - Basic Logic: The Fed announced a reserve management purchase tool, increasing the money supply. UK economic data raised the probability of a rate cut, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation process advanced. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction. Silver follows the trading and delivery logic [2] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, focus on the 955 support for domestic gold and continue to hold long - term value - allocated positions. For silver, beware of high - volatility risks in the short term due to the narrowing of the gold - silver ratio and the existence of delivery risk events [3] Copper - Market Review: Copper prices showed a high - level correction, with concerns about the AI bubble leading to long - position profit - taking [4] - Industrial Logic: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and it is the consumption off - season. The COMEX copper has a continuous siphon effect on global copper inventories [5] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, suggest taking profits on long positions when the price rises. In the long - term, remain optimistic about copper due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand. Short - term price ranges: Shanghai copper [89500, 93500] yuan/ton, London copper [11000, 12000] US dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices declined, with LME zinc falling nearly 2% and Shanghai zinc following the decline [7] - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and supply may shrink in the future. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing during the off - season [8] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, zinc prices are falling from high levels. Enterprises are advised to actively arrange short - hedging positions when the price rises. In the long - term, zinc is a short - allocation in the sector. Price ranges: Shanghai zinc [23000, 23500] yuan/ton, London zinc [3100, 3200] US dollars/ton [9] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices faced pressure in the rebound, while alumina showed an oversold rebound [10] - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost of aluminum enterprises in the southwest of China may increase in the dry season. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased, but the downstream demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation, and attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of enterprises [12] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21000 - 22200] [13] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel faced pressure in the rebound [14] - Industrial Logic: Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel production target, but the inventory of nickel is still increasing. The stainless steel market has entered the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [16] - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, recommend short - selling on the rebound for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is [114000 - 117000] [17] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 rose first and then fell, and the position decreased significantly at the end of the session [18] - Industrial Logic: Domestic production remains high, and overseas supply pressure has eased. The sales volume of new energy vehicles at the beginning of December was lower than expected, but the demand from the energy storage sector was strong. Wait for the opportunity to go long after the price stabilizes [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profits on long positions and wait and see. The price range is [96100 - 97700] [20]