甲醇周报：年末需求淡季，甲醇或偏弱运行-20251215

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol did not improve significantly, and methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. The methanol market may continue in a "weak balance" state. In the short term, the price has limited upside and downside potential. The sustainability of port inventory reduction needs to be observed. With the traditional downstream entering the year - end consumption off - season, the demand for methanol is expected to be weak. The subsequent rebound space of methanol futures may be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fell and adjusted, with the methanol weighted closing at 2089 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 1.42% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market showed a low - level range - bound trend, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2060 - 2120 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2040 - 2100 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices declined weakly, with the price in the Ordos North Line in the main production area ranging from 1980 - 2007 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2200 - 2223 yuan/ton. [13] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis (1) Production - From December 5 - 11, 2025, China's methanol production was 2,039,705 tons, an increase of 16,240 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 89.81%, a 0.81% increase from the previous week. [14] (2) Downstream Demand - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: The MTO industry's start - up decreased, with the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region at 77.54%, a 9.94 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, a 13.96% increase from the previous week. The acetic acid capacity utilization rate increased. The methane chloride capacity utilization rate increased slightly. The formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased to 41.49%. [19][20] (3) Inventory - As of December 10, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons from the previous period, a 2.40% decrease. The sample enterprises' order backlog was 207,500 tons, a decrease of 32,200 tons from the previous period, a 13.45% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,234,400 tons, a decrease of 115,000 tons from the previous period, an 8.52% decrease. [21][23] (4) Profit - From December 5 - 11, 2025, the economic losses at the upstream production end were slightly improved. The weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a 29.29% increase from the previous week; in Shandong, the average profit was - 145.10 yuan/ton, a 37.62% increase; in Shanxi, the average profit was - 203.30 yuan/ton, a 15.92% increase; the weekly average profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 189.00 yuan/ton, a 3.08% decrease. [27][29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, domestic methanol device restarts may exceed overhauls, with an estimated production of about 2.0554 million tons and a capacity utilization rate of about 90.50%, an increase from last week. - Downstream demand: The overall start - up of the olefin industry may still decline. The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decrease, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate may increase, the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may rise, and the chloride capacity utilization rate may decrease. The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 362,100 tons, a slight increase from last week. If the port unloading is smooth, the port inventory may accumulate. Overall, the methanol fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the subsequent rebound space of methanol may be limited. [32][33][34][35]