合成橡胶投资周报：BD底部支撑，BR重心上移-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]