伦铜挤仓和美联储降息提振盘面；关注下周日央行决议：铜周报20251214-20251215

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]