液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：PG内外盘走势分化，关注C3链条需求表现-20251215

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish investment view on LPG, indicating that the current market news is generally "bullish for中下游 PP and propylene, and bearish for upstream crude oil and LPG." The crude oil fundamentals remain loosely and weakly, and the near - term LPG prices are expected to continue the high - level decline trend [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence in domestic and international trends, with an overall supply - demand imbalance in the domestic market. The supply has increased due to the production increase of some refineries in South and East China last week. Although the winter heating demand is gradually improving, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the downstream olefin demand is sluggish. The inventory has increased, and the price is expected to continue to decline [5][6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The LPG futures main contract trended downward, with a fluctuation range of 4,180 - 4,330 yuan/ton. The international LPG price was still strong, but the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the propylene futures price was weak. The domestic PDH plant profit continued to lose money, and the market supply exceeded demand. As of Thursday this week, the basis in East China was 195 yuan/ton, in South China was 200 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 180 yuan/ton. The lowest deliverable product was in Shandong [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 52.29 million tons, including 21.87 million tons of civil gas, 19.35 million tons of industrial gas, and 17.12 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume was 283.44 million tons. Some refineries in South and East China increased production last week, so the supply increased. There is no news of refinery start - up or shutdown this week, but there are both some plant shutdowns and start - ups, and the domestic commodity volume is expected to change little [5]. 3.3 Demand - The winter heating demand is gradually coming, and the LPG combustion demand is gradually improving, with a slow recovery in demand. However, the absolute value of the PN spread has narrowed, the economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material has weakened, and the substitution effect is limited due to the weak downstream olefin demand. The domestic propylene market has a serious oversupply, and the high - load operation of PDH plants suppresses the procurement demand for raw material propane. The European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE driven by the structural shortage of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin. The domestic isobutane dehydrogenation plants are operating at a high start - up rate, and although the profit loss has increased with the rise of raw material prices, the rigid demand is relatively resilient [5]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the LPG factory inventory was 201.00 million tons, and the port inventory was 215.20 million tons. Affected by the short - term weakness of international crude oil, the prices in various regions rose first and then fell. Coupled with the supply increase in some regions, downstream buyers chose to wait and see, which led to an increase in factory inventory. At the port, the arrival of ships increased, and the inventory of some ships arriving at the end of last week was reflected this week, with sufficient imported resources. With the continuous arrival of ships, the port shipping volume increased, but the port still showed an inventory accumulation trend [5]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was 195 yuan/ton in East China, 200 yuan/ton in South China, and 180 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total LPG warehouse receipt volume was 5,476 lots, an increase of 0 lots, and the lowest deliverable location was in Shandong [5][6]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation were not fully filled in the data. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and Shandong alkylation were - 555 yuan/ton, - 172 yuan/ton, and - 484 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27, and the PG main - secondary monthly difference was - 1.13% (84 yuan/ton). In the fourth quarter, the gas price was firm, while the crude oil returned to a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread showed a weakening trend [5]. 3.8 Other Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and slightly narrowed the supply surplus forecast. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November, and OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and implementing a special action to boost consumption. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts in the future has increased, with Morgan and Citi unanimously expecting another rate cut in January [5]. 3.9 Investment Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily. For arbitrage, pay attention to the PG3 - 4 reverse spread, long PG and short SC, and long PP and short PG [5].