日度策略参考-20251215

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock index, bullish on treasury bonds [1] - Non - ferrous Metals: Aluminum - high - level wide - range shock; Alumina - weak fundamentals, limited upward drive; Zinc - expected to be shock - strong; Nickel - shock - weak; Stainless steel - shock; Tin - bullish in the long - term; Gold - shock in the short - term, upward space in the long - term; Silver - wide - range shock in the short - term; Platinum - shock - strong in the short - term, long - term long - position allocation; Palladium - shock in the short - term; Industrial silicon - bearish; Polysilicon - shock; Lithium carbonate - affected by multiple factors, facing pressure at 100,000 yuan [1] - Black Metals: Rebar - shock; Hot - rolled coil - shock; Iron ore - shock; Manganese silicon - shock; Silicomanganese - shock; Glass - price fluctuates strongly; Soda ash - shock; Coke - shock; Coking coal - shock [1] - Agricultural Products: Palm oil - wait - and - see; Rapeseed oil - expected to rebound; Cotton - "supported, no drive" in the short - term; Sugar - bearish consensus, cost - supported below; Corn - limited short - term decline; Imported soybeans - shock, different expectations for different contracts; Pulp - wait - and - see for single - side, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread; Logs - shock - weak [1] - Energy and Chemicals: Fuel oil - bearish; Bitumen - affected by multiple factors; Natural rubber - supported by raw material cost; BR rubber - shock, pay attention to export; PTA - affected by multiple factors; Ethylene glycol - price decline; Short - fiber - follow cost; Styrene - narrow - range shock; PP - limited upward space; PE - shock; Urea - shock; Propylene - shock; PVC - bearish; Caustic soda - affected by multiple factors; LPG - shock [1][2] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation of the central economic work conference, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - Different non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and overseas policies, showing different price trends [1] - Black metals are affected by factors such as macro - drive, supply - demand relationship, and inventory, with prices mainly in a shock state [1] - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and weather, and their prices show different trends and need to pay attention to different influencing factors [1] - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as international oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, with complex price trends [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: In the short term, be vigilant against post - policy adjustment, but in the long term, the market adjustment since mid - November provides a layout window. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize investment costs and winning probabilities [1] - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. Pay attention to low - level layout opportunities for long positions [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Aluminum: High - level wide - range shock due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating risk preference [1] - Alumina: Domestic production and inventory are increasing, with a weak fundamental pattern. Although some short - positions leave the market and the price rebounds, the upward drive is limited [1] - Zinc: After the short - term digestion of macro - benefits, the fundamentals improve, the cost center moves up, and it is expected to be shock - strong in the short term. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and domestic policies [1] - Nickel: Affected by factors such as overseas policies and high global inventory, the price may be shock - weak in the short term. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is one of surplus [1] - Stainless Steel: Affected by factors such as raw - material prices, inventory, and production reduction of steel mills, the futures price fluctuates. Short - term operation is recommended, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: Bullish in the long - term due to the tense situation in the Congo. Pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities during corrections [1] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are in a shock state in the short - term, while platinum has upward potential in the short - term and long - term long - position allocation is recommended. The "long - platinum, short - palladium" arbitrage strategy can be continued [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest and decreased production in the southwest, as well as reduced production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the medium - long term, there is an expectation of capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation increases marginally, and large manufacturers have strong price - support and low delivery willingness. The number of delivery brands increases [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Affected by the peak season of new - energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, increased supply - side resumption, and pressure at the 100,000 - yuan level [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: In December, macro - drive strengthens, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - spread positions to enter the market. Do not chase high for single - side positions [1] - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Manganese Silicon and Silicomanganese: Direct demand weakens, supply is high, and inventory accumulates, putting pressure on prices [1] - Glass and Soda Ash: Supply - demand provides support, and the valuation is low. However, short - term sentiment dominates, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream restocking may start around mid - December. Single - side positions should be treated with a short - term approach, and long - term positions should wait and see [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the MPOB report and German policies, wait - and - see [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Expected to rebound due to the news of returned imported non - genetically modified rapeseed oil [1] - Cotton: In the short - term, it is "supported, no drive". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the future [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The bearish consensus is strong, and pay attention to the cost support below [1] - Corn: Short - term decline is limited, and pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and inventory changes [1] - Imported Soybeans: Domestic auction results are positive for near - month and positive - spread positions. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak [1] - Pulp: Affected by "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations, single - side wait - and - see, consider 1 - 5 reverse spread for month - spread [1] - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot - price declines, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to be shock - weak [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1] - Bitumen: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - Natural Rubber: Supported by raw - material cost, the basis is low, and the mid - stream inventory may return to the accumulation trend [1] - BR Rubber: Transaction improves, but high -开工 and high - inventory are still pressures. Pay attention to synthetic - rubber exports [1] - PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber: Affected by factors such as gasoline cracking profit, PX cost, and new - device production [1] - Styrene: Mainly in a narrow - range shock, affected by export discussions and polymer - market sales [1] - PP, PE: Limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, with support below [1] - Urea: High - level operation of production, increased supply, and weak downstream demand [2] - Propylene: High - level cost support, but downstream improvement is less than expected [2] - PVC: Supply pressure increases, and demand weakens [2] - Caustic Soda: Affected by factors such as alumina production, production load, and inventory [2] - LPG: International oil and gas return to the fundamental - relaxation logic, and the price is in a range - shock state [2]