黑色金属数据日报-20251215

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Treat the single - side at low - level oscillation; conduct rolling operations on the hot - roll futures - spot positive spread or assist the spot with option strategies [3] - Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] - Iron Ore: Hold short positions [3] 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment is not overly optimistic due to limited information on incremental stimulus policies. The new steel export license system will help the long - term high - quality development of the steel industry, but the steel export market needs time to re - balance. The current supply - demand structure is weak, and the price of furnace materials is under pressure. The futures price valuation is relatively low, and short - chasing is not recommended. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may be boosted in the short - term, but the fundamentals are weak, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulating. - The coking coal and coke markets had a sharp decline and then showed signs of stabilization. The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak. - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the continuous decline of molten iron and rising port inventory. The price decline may slow down after the molten iron stabilizes, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - Macro: The US cut interest rates in December as expected, and domestic meetings were held. The information on incremental stimulus policies is limited, and market sentiment is not overly excited. - Industry news: The steel export license system is beneficial to the long - term development of the industry. The market has a neutral reaction to it, and the steel export market needs time to re - balance. - Supply - demand: The supply - demand structure is weak in the weekly perspective. The price of furnace materials is under pressure, and the de - stocking pressure of plates is prominent. There may be some inventory replenishment in the industry later, and the molten iron output may decline further before winter - stock replenishment. - Valuation: The basis and molten iron margin are large, and industry profits are low, indicating a relatively low futures price valuation, so short - chasing is not recommended. [3] Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Policy: The government will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects, which may boost the short - term sentiment of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon prices. - Fundamentals: Steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, direct demand is weakening, and the negative feedback pressure is accumulating. Alloy factories have poor profits but high production, with supply exceeding demand and rapid inventory accumulation. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot: The second round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is expected next week. The market sentiment is weak, with most auctions failing. The coking coal price is also declining. - Futures: Affected by the off - season, domestic meetings, and export control, the black chain index declined, and coking coal and coke led the decline. On Friday night, they rebounded after pricing in the expectation of six rounds of price cuts, showing signs of stabilization. - Market sentiment: The weakening of steel supply - demand, the new steel export policy, and the less - than - expected tone of domestic meetings on finance and real estate have led to a pessimistic market sentiment. Attention is paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - stock replenishment next week. [3] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: The molten iron output has continuously declined to about 2.29 million tons without signs of stabilization. The port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise, and the price is under pressure. - Outlook: The molten iron is expected to stabilize at the end of the month, and steel mills will gradually resume production in January, with pre - production inventory replenishment. The decline of iron ore price may slow down, and short positions can be held and considered for stop - profit at the lower limit of the range. [3] Futures and Spot Market Data on December 12 - Futures Market - Far - month contract closing prices: RB2610 was 3093 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), HC2610 was 3239 yuan/ton (- 0.77%), etc. - Near - month contract closing prices: RB2605 was 3060 yuan/ton (- 0.87%), HC2605 was 3232 yuan/ton (- 0.83%), etc. - Inter - month spreads: RB2605 - 2610 was - 33 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton), etc. - Spreads/ratios/profits: The hot - roll to rebar spread was 172 yuan/ton (with a change of 3 yuan/ton), etc. [1] - Spot Market - Rebar prices: Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin was 3130 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), etc. - Hot - roll prices: Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton), Hangzhou was 3270 yuan/ton (unchanged), etc. - Other prices: Tangshan billet was 2940 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Platts Index was 105.2 (with a change of 0.2), etc. - Basis: HC main contract was - 12 yuan/ton (- 14 yuan/ton change), RB main contract was 190 yuan/ton (with a change of 9 yuan/ton), etc. [1]