宏观金融数据日报-20251215

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The central government continues a relatively positive policy tone, with fiscal policy maintaining the scale of deficits and debt, and monetary policy remaining moderately loose with potential use of reserve - requirement cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, there may be a "sell - the - news" adjustment after the policy implementation, but the market correction since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year, suggesting investors gradually build long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock - index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate and Bond Market - DROO1 closed at 1.27, down 0.21bp; DR007 closed at 1.47, up 1.75bp; GC001 closed at 1.58, up 32.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.54, up 3.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.59, up 0.10bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.39, up 0.02bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.62, up 0.83bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.84, up 0.26bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.19, up 5.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase operations. With 663.8 billion yuan in reverse - repurchase maturities, the net injection was 4.7 billion yuan. This week, 668.5 billion yuan in reverse - repurchases will mature, along with 40 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse - repurchases and 8 billion yuan in treasury - cash fixed - deposits maturing on Monday [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of major stock indices and their corresponding stock - index futures contracts are presented. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4581, up 0.63%; IF for the current month closed at 4574, up 0.8%. The trading volumes and open interests of stock - index futures also showed varying degrees of increase [5] - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.08% to 4581; the SSE 50 fell 0.25% to 2994.6; the CSI 500 rose 1.01% to 7169.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% to 7370.9. Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, communication (6.3%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), electronics (2.6%), machinery (1.4%), and power equipment (1.2%) led the gains, while steel (-2.9%), real estate (-2.6%), textile and apparel (-2.6%), basic chemicals (-2.2%), and household appliances (-2%) led the losses. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 214.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] 3.3 Stock - Index Futures Basis - The basis of IF for different contracts: current - month contract 11.08%, next - month contract 6.12%, current - quarter contract 4.15%, next - quarter contract 3.92%; IH: current - month contract 19.12%, next - month contract 5.41%, current - quarter contract 1.88%, next - quarter contract 1.84%; IC: current - month contract - 4.29%, next - month contract 8.45%, current - quarter contract 9.07%, next - quarter contract 10.19%; IM: current - month contract 9.05%, next - month contract 12.72%, current - quarter contract 12.95%, next - quarter contract 13.00% [7]