国泰君安期货所长早读-20251215

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. Some sectors like copper have long - term driving factors but face short - term adjustments, while others like烧碱 (caustic soda) have short - term rebounds but long - term pressure [9][11]. - The global economic and political situation, such as the potential change of the Fed chair, China's economic policies, and international conflicts, has an impact on the commodity futures market [19][21][159]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold and Silver: Gold is experiencing expected interest rate cuts, and silver is in a high - level adjustment. The prices of both showed certain fluctuations in the previous trading day, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory [19]. - Copper: The long - term driving logic for copper remains. Although the price had a significant callback on Friday night, the long - term demand from AI computing centers, new energy, and developing countries, along with the tight supply of copper concentrates, supports the price. The short - term adjustment provides a good entry point for long - term buying [9][23]. - Zinc: The domestic zinc market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction, which has a certain supporting effect on the price [26]. - Lead: The reduction in lead inventory supports the price [29]. - 锡: There are new disturbances in the tin supply, and the price showed an upward trend in the previous trading day [30]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: The aluminum market faces increased macro - level disturbances. Alumina requires continuous attention to production capacity reduction, and cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [34]. - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum has broken through the previous high and started to catch up in price, while palladium has seen significant ETF holdings increase and is expected to reach the previous high [37]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel market is experiencing a structural shift from surplus, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The stainless - steel market has weak supply and demand, and the steel price is oscillating at a low level [41]. Energy and Chemicals - PTA, MEG, and PX: PX is in a high - level oscillation market with seasonal demand weakening but still tight supply. PTA is also in a high - level oscillation, and its upside is limited due to the situation of polyester. MEG has improved its inventory accumulation pressure through unplanned production cuts and has short - term support at the bottom [73][79][80]. - Rubber: The rubber market is oscillating, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and price differentials [81]. - Synthetic Rubber: The synthetic rubber market has an upward - moving oscillation center, with changes in price, trading volume, and production - related indicators [84]. - Asphalt: The situation in Venezuela has heated up again, and the asphalt market shows certain price fluctuations and changes in inventory and production capacity utilization [88][99]. - LLDPE and PP: LLDPE is in a one - sided decline with limited basis strengthening. PP faces upstream selling pressure, and the price difference between powder and granular materials is inverted, with both facing supply - demand pressure [102][106]. - Caustic Soda: Caustic soda had a short - term rebound but still faces long - term pressure due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [11][110]. - Paper Pulp: The paper - pulp market is in a wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as external - market costs and domestic inventory [113][116]. - Glass: The glass original - sheet price is stable, and the market shows certain regional price differences and trading - volume changes [121]. - Methanol: Methanol is in an oscillatory rebound, with changes in inventory and price, and is affected by factors such as port - unloading speed and macro - policies [124][127]. - Urea: Urea is in short - term oscillatory operation, with changes in inventory, price, and production - related indicators, and is affected by factors such as demand and policy [129][130]. - Styrene: Styrene is in short - term oscillation, affected by factors such as the pure - benzene market and downstream demand [132][133]. - Soda Ash: The domestic soda - ash market has little change, with stable production and weak downstream demand [135]. - LPG and Propylene: LPG is in short - term oscillation with a downward trend in the long run. Propylene is in short - term narrow - range adjustment, with changes in price and production - related indicators [138][139]. - PVC: PVC is in a low - level oscillation, with high production and high inventory, but there is a short - term rebound expectation due to potential production cuts [147]. - Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil rebounded at night and temporarily got rid of the weak situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the external market has a small rebound [150]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil and Soybean Oil: Palm - oil production reduction is not clear, and the rebound height is limited. Soybean oil lacks driving factors from US soybeans and is in an oscillatory state [173]. - Soybean Meal and Soybeans: CBOT soybeans closed lower, and domestic soybean meal may follow the adjustment. Soybeans are in an adjustment and oscillation state [181]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the corn spot market, with changes in spot and futures prices and trading - related indicators [184]. - Sugar: Sugar is in low - level consolidation, affected by factors such as global and domestic production and consumption [188]. - Cotton: Cotton is oscillating strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, with changes in spot and futures prices and trading - related indicators [193]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to peanut purchases by oil mills, with changes in spot and futures prices and trading - related indicators [199]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in an oscillatory state in the medium term, with changes in futures prices and shipping - related indicators [152].