首席点评：社融增速维持高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - Stock Index: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - Treasury Bonds: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - Methanol: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - Rubber: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - Polyolefins: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - Precious Metals: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - Copper: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - Zinc: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - Aluminum: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - Lithium Carbonate: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - Steel: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - Edible Oils: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - Cotton: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].