东海证券晨会纪要-20251215

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on equity sectors with clear directions during the central bank's interest rate decision week, highlighting the mixed performance of global markets and the need for strategic asset allocation [5][7][10]. Economic Policy Insights - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlined five essential strategies to stabilize economic growth, maintaining a target growth rate of around 5% and emphasizing the need for effective macroeconomic governance [10][11][12]. - The report indicates a shift towards more proactive fiscal policies, with a projected narrow deficit rate of around 4% and an increase in special bonds to support economic recovery [12][13]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to support economic growth and price stability [12][13]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of December 12, 2025, the A-share market showed varied performance across sectors, with growth sectors outperforming financial and cyclical sectors [6][22]. - The average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market increased to 19,359 billion yuan, up from 16,843 billion yuan previously, indicating heightened market activity [6][22]. Sector Analysis - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector is expected to perform well, with global semiconductor sales increasing by 4.7% month-on-month in October 2025, reaching 72.7 billion USD, and a year-on-year growth of 27.2% [7][10]. - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, defense, and electronics sectors showed significant gains, while coal, oil, and steel sectors experienced declines [6][22]. Financial Statistics - The report provides key financial statistics, including a total social financing increment of 33.39 trillion yuan for the first ten months of 2025, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the previous year [16]. - The broad money supply (M2) reached 336.99 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.9% [16].