——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.8-12.14）：12月高炉产能利用率有望低于去年同期水平-20251215

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metals sectors [5] Core Insights - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is expected to remain below last year's levels, indicating potential challenges in production efficiency [1] - The liquidity indicators show a decline in the growth rate difference between M1 and M2, which may impact market dynamics [10] - The construction and real estate sectors are experiencing a downturn, with significant declines in new construction and sales areas [22][79] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.1 percentage points in November 2025, down by 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [10][18] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index was 52.50 in November 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous month [10][18] Construction and Real Estate Chain - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86% this week, down by 1.16 percentage points [9][42] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in new construction area for the first ten months of 2025 was -19.80% [22] - The cumulative year-on-year decline in commodity housing sales area for the same period was -6.80% [22] Industrial Products Chain - The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 71.57%, up by 0.65 percentage points [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum was 22,070 yuan/ton, down by 0.36% [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate reached 374,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.65% [2] Price Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver reached a new low since July 2021 [3] - The price of rebar was 3,250 yuan/ton, down by 0.61% [9][42] - The price of iron ore was 785 yuan/ton, down by 0.6% [9] Export Chain - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1,118.07 points, up by 0.29% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 75.70%, down by 0.10 percentage points [3] - New export orders in China's PMI for November 2025 were 47.60%, up by 1.7 percentage points [3] Valuation Metrics - The PB ratio for the steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently at 0.51, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The overall steel industry gross profit was 152 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.6% [9]