中金公司港股晨报-20251215

Company Recommendations - China Telecom (0728) is recommended for purchase with a target price of 6.50 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 15.0% from the current price of 5.65 HKD [2][11] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,976 points, with a year-to-date increase of 29.50% [4] - The market is currently observing a short-term support level around 25,000 points, influenced by the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and the economic outlook in China [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Telecom reported a slight revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with service revenue growing by 0.9% [7] - EBITDA increased by 4.2%, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 5.0% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, revenue slightly declined by 0.9% year-on-year, while service revenue grew by 0.5% [7] Cloud Services - China Telecom's Tianyi Cloud is in a transitional phase, with revenue growth slowing down; however, AI-driven smart computing services saw a significant increase of 62.3% year-on-year [8][9] - The company did not disclose Tianyi Cloud's revenue for Q3 2025, but it reported 57.3 billion RMB in revenue for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 3.8% year-on-year growth [8] Government Policies and Economic Outlook - The government is expected to encourage the application of AI-related cloud computing technologies during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, which may benefit China Telecom's cloud business [9] - The anticipated rise in Chinese government bond yields is expected to be limited, making China Telecom a relatively attractive high-dividend stock choice [10] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for China Telecom are as follows: 5,342.9 billion RMB for FY25 and 5,466.6 billion RMB for FY26 [11] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders is 349.6 billion RMB for FY25 and 370.2 billion RMB for FY26 [11]