Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The Fed's Dovish Rate Cut and the Continuous New High of New York Copper Inventory [1] Report Date - December 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment. The copper concentrate TC remains at a historically low negative level, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The shortage of copper mines supports the copper price center. Although the downstream demand slows down in the off - season, the operating rate of copper foils related to new energy and energy storage has increased. The copper price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [5]. - On the supply side, the mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory decreased, and the electrolytic copper production is expected to rise again in December. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate weakened due to high copper prices, except for the copper foil operating rate which reached a new high. In terms of inventory, the destocking of domestic copper social inventory slowed down, while LME and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [8][9]. - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Market Review - Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend last week, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment [5]. 1.2 Supply - side Situation - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [8][37]. 1.3 Demand - side Situation - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [9][40]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [9][45]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestions - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus in November was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, imports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 1.076 trillion US dollars [15]. - From January to November, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [16]. - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [17]. - On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, and planned to start buying Treasury bills from December 12, with a monthly purchase of 40 billion US dollars [18]. 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In October, the copper production of Codelco in Chile decreased by 14.3% year - on - year, while the copper production of Escondida increased. The copper production of Collahuasi decreased by 29.3% year - on - year [20]. - In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.883 million tons, a 4.7% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper ore concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [20]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by the shareholders of both parties, aiming to form a new mining giant with an annual copper production of over 1.2 million tons [20]. - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in the Condestable copper mine in Peru for 241 million US dollars, with a potential future copper - equivalent annual production of about 27,000 tons [20]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning Situation 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - During the week, the copper price continued to rise, and the purchasing sentiment declined, causing the Shanghai copper spot premium to fall under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a small premium, and the New York - London copper spread weakened [23]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 12, the Shanghai copper futures position was 222,313 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6.00%, and the average daily trading volume was 165,509.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%. As of December 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 11,859.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 54.41%. As of November 18, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 61,603 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 2.66% [27]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - side - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [37]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [40]. 4.3 Inventory - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [45].
铜周报：美联储降息偏鸽，纽铜库存持续新高-20251215
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-15 04:48