碳酸锂周报：去库趋势延续，价格延续震荡-20251215

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 15, 2025 [3] Group 2: Weekly Viewpoint Supply Situation - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 170 tons to 24,065 tons, and the November output increased by 3% month-on-month to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re-review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. [5] - In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, imports from Zimbabwe were 150,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 41%, and imports from Nigeria were 120,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month. In October, carbonate lithium imports were 23,881 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.9%, with 14,800 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 62%. [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week-on-week, causing some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore to face cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure. [5] Demand Situation - In October, the overall production schedule increased month-on-month, and the production schedule of large cell factories increased by 8% in September. In November, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 52.2%. The trade-in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of sales in the Chinese new energy vehicle market. [6] Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a de-stocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 75 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 5,615 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 4,128 tons. [6] Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In November, the domestic carbonate lithium output increased by 3% month-on-month, and in October, 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The total import volume of carbonate lithium in October was about 24,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Downstream demand is strong, and the de-stocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good, but the production schedule in December is expected to decline slightly. In November, the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month-on-month, and in October, it increased by 4% month-on-month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun persists. With profit restoration, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase in production, and the cost center has shifted upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine resuming production within the year has been dashed, and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the ore end in Yichun. Downstream buyers are actively purchasing carbonate lithium, the de-stocking trend continues, and the inventory of traders has accumulated. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of mining certificates in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine. [7] Group 3: Key Data Tracking Price Data - Data on the spot tax-included average price of carbonate lithium in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals from April 1, 2019, to October 9, 2025 [9] - Data on the average price of 99.2% industrial-grade carbonate lithium from June 13, 2023, to October 13, 2025 [18] - Data on the average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6%-6.5%) from January 2, 2019, to May 26, 2025 [21] - Data on the average price of power-type lithium iron phosphate from February 8, 2021, to September 19, 2025 [43] - Data on the market price of ternary material 8-series NCA type from January 1, 2021, to November 6, 2025 [47] Production Data - Data on the weekly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - Data on the monthly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - Data on the production of power and other batteries (including monthly values, values of lithium iron phosphate, and year-on-year growth rates) from January 2020 to October 2025 [24] - In November 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.05% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [25][26] - Data on the monthly production of ternary materials from 2021 to 2025 [32][33] - Data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate from 2021 to 2025 [36][37] Inventory Data - Data on the weekly inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [14][15] - Data on the monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [19][20] Import Data - Data on the import volume of lithium spodumene from 2021 to 2025 [40][41] - Data on the import volume of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]